Learn about American racing...

follow our own American racing picks through the Graded Stakes races to the Breeders' Cup.Todays Tip - Click the Like Button at top of page if you find these tips useful DRF Best Bets February 04 Aqueduct, Race 7 Dave Litfin's Pick: Selection #1 Pearl of Wisdom 1 pt place February 02 Santa Anita, Race 8 Brad Free's Pick: Selection #3 The Black - 1st 1 pt place Win £4.60 Place £2.80 Show £2.20 February 01 Aqueduct, Race 6 Dave Litfin's Pick: Selection #6 Permanent Wave - 1st 1 pt win 1 pt place Win £7.40 Place £3.30 Show £2.80 January 29 Golden Gate Fields, Race 6 Chuck Dybdal's Pick: Selection #5 Wicked Trip - 1st 1 pt win 1 pt place Win £4.00 Place £2.40 Show £2.20 January 27 Gulfstream Park, Race 8 Mike Welsch's Pick: Selection #5 Orangeblackandgold - unplaced 1 pt win 1 pt place January 26 Santa Anita Park, Race 6 Brad Free's Pick: Selection #3 Towering - unplaced 1 pt win 1 pt place January 25 Aqueduct, Race 9 Dave Litfin's Pick: Selection #8 Sacred Succes - 1st 1 pt win 1 pt place Win £3.30 Place £2.20 Show £2.10 January 22 Santa Anita Park, Race 1 Brad Free's Pick: Selection #6 Beautiful Strike - 2nd 1 pt win 1 pt place Place £2.40 Show £2.10 January 20 Gulfstream Park, Race 4Mike Welsch's Pick: Selection #8 Idratherbeatthespa - 2nd 1 pt win 1 pt place Place £2.70 Show £2.50 January 19 Aqueduct, Race 9Dave Litfin's Pick: Selection #7 Easy Ending 1 pt win 1 pt place January 18 Turf Paradise, Race 8 Scott Ehlers's Pick: Selection #4 St Patricks Appeal - unplaced 1 pt win 1 pt place January 15 Golden Gate Fields, Race 8 Chuck Dybdal's Pick: Selection #3 Miss Corinthian - 3rd 1 pt win 1 pt placeShow £2.80 January 13 Santa Anita Park, Race 2 Brad Free's Pick: Selection #2 Woebegon - unplaced 1 pt win 1 pt place January 12 Gulfstream Park, Race 6 Michael Hammersly's Pick: Selection #3 Badleroibrown - 3rd 1 pt win 1 pt place Show £2.60 January 11 Aqueduct, Race 6 Dave Litfin's Pick: Selection #6 Poni Colada - 2nd 1 pt win 1 pt place Place £3.40 Show £2.90 January 06 Gulfstream Park, Race 9Mike Welsch's Pick: Selection #2 Grip Hands - 2nd 1 pt win 1 pt place Place £4.00 Show £3.20 January 05 Aqueduct, Race 6Dave Litfin's Pick: Selection #1 Royal Sighting - unplaced 1 pt win 1 pt place January 04 Fair Grounds, Race 6Marcus Hersh's Pick: Selection #7 Severe Weather - unplaced 1 pt win 1 pt place For past Tips Results - see bottom of page Posted by Laurie Ross In the last decade, the Breeders' Cup has been held at Churchill Downs three times, 2000, 2006 and 2010. The contests bring together the best horses in the United States and top European counterparts. Below we'll examine which running styles, prep races and track surfaces yield the most Breeders' Cup winners at Churchill Downs. The Dirt Mile and Filly & Mare Sprint are excluded because they have only been held once at Churchill. JUVENILE Prep Race:The historic Champagne has proved to be the most formful prep race for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile held at Churchill. In 2000 Point Given was second in both races, while last year, Uncle Mo dominated the Champagne and Juvenile. This year, Union Rags is poised to complete the Champagne/Juvenile double. In 2006, Street Sense, Circular Quay and Great Hunter ran three, two, one in the Keeneland Futurity and reversed that order in the Juvenile. Last year, no runner coming out of a race on a synthetic track hit the board, although Rogue Romance used the Bourbon over the Keeneland turf. Colts that finished first or second in their prep races all hit the board in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. The only anomaly was the 2006 Champ Street Sense, who was third over the Keeneland Poly in his prep. Twenty to twenty seven days between the last prep race and the Juvenile seems to be the magic numbers, all winners and runners up, except for last year's place horse (Boys At Tosconova) fall into this category. Running Style:One run stalkers fared the best in all three Juvenile editions. While pace pressers won in 2000 (Macho Uno) and 2010 (Uncle Mo), stalkers took second and third place in both races and in 2006, stalkers took the top three spots. Those in posts 9 fared the best, hitting the board in all three editions. None farther out than post 7 have won. (American racing analysis by Laurie Ross) Favorites:Last year, Uncle Mo was the overwhelming favorite. In 2006, Circular Quay finished a distant second to Street Sense and in 2000, A.P. Valentine, the Champagne winner, failed to fire and wound up in seventh place. Pedigree matters, too. Sprint-oriented precocious youngsters don't fare well in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile or Juvenile Fillies. Does the Breeders' Cup Juvenile really offer a glimpse into how the top three finishers will do in the Classics' Nine horses have hit the board in the three Juveniles held at Churchill. Only one, Street Sense, has finished in the top three in the Kentucky Derby, and in fact, is the only Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner to win the Kentucky Derby. Just to show how hard the transition from the two year old to three year old season is, only four of the nine colts raced in the Kentucky Derby, three contested the Preakness, and one, Point Given, entered and won the Belmont Stakes. Last year's top three finishers never made it to the Triple Crown races. (American racing analysis by Laurie Ross) JUVENILE FILLIESPrep Race:Two year old fillies who tuned up in the Alcibiades hit the board three times. In 2000, Platinum Tiara, runner up in the BC Juvenile Fillies, and third place horse She's A Devil Due were fifth and first respectively in the Alcibiades when it was run over dirt. In 2006, Cotton Blossom placed third in the Juvenile Fillies after a disappointing ninth place finish in the Alcibiades over Polytrack. American Racing in 2006 and 2010, Fillies who had their last prep over Woodbine Poly finished first (Dreaming of Anna, 2006) and third (Delightful Mary, 2010). Unlike the colts, four fillies who were second in their preps hit the board the most in the BC Fillies. The last two runnings of the race were won by fillies who were also victorious in their last race. Two fillies that were off of the board in their preps finished second and third (2000, Platinum Tiara, 2000, 5th in Alcibiades) (2006, Cotton Blossom 9th in Alcibiades). The time between the last prep race and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies varied from 19 to 53 days, with half of the fillies getting 20 ' 26 days between the races. (American racing analysis by Laurie Ross) Running Style:While a mid-pack runner took the 2000 edition of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile fillies, a pace setter and pace presser took the next two editions. Runners-up favored mid-pack or stalking styles. Inside posts work best. Caressing won from post 6, but posts 1 ' 4 have rounded out the other top spots in all three years. (American racing analysis by Laurie Ross) Favorites:Favorites won the last two versions of the Juvenile Fillies at Churchill and the prices were fairly chalky. In 2000, Caressing surprised as a $96.00 winner when the favorite Raging Fever failed to hit the board. The Juvenile Fillies offers barely a glimpse at a future Kentucky Oaks winner. Out of nine fillies that have hit the board in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, one, Octave finished in the money the following spring. She placed second in that year's Oaks. (American racing analysis by Laurie Ross) BREEDERS' CUP SPRINTPrep Race:A win or placing in the Ancient Title Stakes almost guarantees a win at Churchill in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. The 2000 and 2006 Sprint champs both exited the Ancient Title as a winner and runner-up respectively, while the 2010 Ancient Title winner was third in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Two runners who used the Forego as a prep have also done well in the Sprint. In 2006, Nightmare Affair was unplaced in the Forego and placed third in the Sprint, while last year's Sprint Champ Big Drama was second in the Forego. All of the winners and runners-up in the Breeders' Cup Sprint had their final prep over dirt. The only horse to race over a synthetic surface (Cushion Track) was Smiling Tiger, who placed third last year. In 2000, the top Sprint finishers had their last prep between 20 ' 24 days apart and the 2006 winner's last prep was 28 days before the Sprint. However, in 2006 and 2010, the runners-up had anywhere from 28 ' 63 days between races and last year's winner Big Drama had 63 days between his latest race and the Breeders' Cup Sprint. (American racing analysis by Laurie Ross) Running Style: Pace setters won the last two Breeders' Cup Sprints held at Churchill while Kona Gold in 2000 was a pace presser. He also went on to establish a new track record of 1:07.77. A third of the runners-up have been stalkers. Although Kona Gold and Honest Lady finished one-two in 2000 from far outside posts, the last two editions of the Sprint have been won from the one hole. Horses in posts 1 ' 7 do the best in the Sprint at Churchill. (American racing analysis by Laurie Ross) Favorites:The Breeders' Cup Sprint has yielded double digit payouts in the last two years when the favorites failed to hit the board. The last three Sprint winners at Churchill either won or were second in their final prep. (American racing analysis by Laurie Ross) BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFFPrep Race:Runners-up in the Spinster and Beldame have done incredibly well in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. In 2000, Spain used a second place finish in the Spinster to spring to a huge upset win in the Distaff, paying $113.80. Heritage of Gold, the show horse in the Distaff that year had previously finished fourth in the Spinster. In 2006, the first time the Spinster was held on Polytrack, Happy Ticket was unplaced in the race, but rebounded to finish second in the Distaff. The winner of the Spinster Asi Siempre, had finished second in the Distaff, but was disqualified to fourth. The last two Churchill Distaff heroines exited the Beldame. In 2006, Round Pond was third in the Beldame before winning the Distaff, and last year Unrivaled Belle parlayed a second place finish in the Beldame into a Distaff win. Overall, mares who didn't win their last prep races did best in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. Those that did win their last prep finished third or worse in all three editions of the Distaff at Churchill. (American racing analysis by Laurie Ross) Running Style:Spain was the only Distaff heroine to lay close to the pace, and she took over from pace setter Surfside, who finished second in 2000. The rest of the winners sat mid-pack or stalked early on. Post doesn't seem as important in the Distaff. Although the winners came from posts 1, 4 and 6, runners-up in the last two Distaff editions held at Churchill used posts 10 ' 14. (American racing analysis by Laurie Ross) Favorites:The last three Churchill Distaff winners have paid double and triple digits. In 2000 and 2006, the favorites failed to hit the board. Last year, Blind Luck was second. (American racing analysis by Laurie Ross) CLASSICPrep Race:In 2006 and 2010, the Jockey Club Gold Cup offered the best clues to the top finishers in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Bernardini, Blame and Fly Down won, placed and showed in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Bernardini won the Gold Cup but finished behind Invasor in the Classic, while Blame was second in the Gold Cup and narrowly won the Classic. Fly Down finished third in both races. All three years, the Breeders' Cup Classic champs exited a prep race held over the dirt. All runners except 20006's Premium Tap (5th) won or hit the board in their last preps before the Classic. In 2000 and 2006, 28 days between the last prep race and the Classic seemed to be the norm for horses finishing in the money. However, in 2010, the top three entered the Classic off of a 35 day rest. In 2000, Giant's Causeway narrow defeat by Tiznow came after a 42 day break. Invasor broke all the rules in 2006 and won the Classic off a 91 day layoff. (American racing analysis by Laurie Ross) Running Style:In 2000, Tiznow pressed Albert The Great to the mile pole and took over, but otherwise, mid-pack runners and late running stalkers have fared best in the Classics held at Churchill. Like the Distaff, post position isn't as important. In 2000, Tiznow and Giant's Causeway held an exciting battle from the 13 and 12 spots and Invasor dominated from post 11. (American racing analysis by Laurie Ross) Favorites:In all three editions of the Classic held at Churchill, the winners have paid double digits. None of the favorites have won, but in 2006 and 2010 they finished second. The largest payout was in 2000, when Tiznow returned a remarkable $20.40. (American racing analysis by Laurie Ross) Read the expert analysis and place American bets of your own.
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Bettors in the States are seldom familiar with horses shipping from overseas. Handicappers in England, Ireland and Europe likely don’t follow American racing and may see the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs and other stakes races as a difficult bet. Similar to a game of King of the Mountain, the top thoroughbreds are constantly shifting in and out of favor, which is dependant on their latest performance on the track. Over the next few months, Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds will provide information on the top runners headed to the Breeders’ Cup. We will also provide tips on how to read various American racing forms and how to interpret the data so handicappers can make educated bets on American racing.
USA Race Analysis
by Laurie Ross
Race Analysis And Picks
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Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds
Below are several links to news agencies and tools to assist in the process of deciphering American racing in the U.S.
Daily Racing Form
One of the top news and producers of American racing Past Performances. The site includes free video analysis of races and more.
The Bloodhorse provides the key to American Racing
American Racing and breeding news from across the US. They offer a database of free race videos of races in the US.
Horse Racing Nation
a huge database of horses and trainers. Information includes latest American Racing news, race charts, notes, pedigree information, etc. for each horse.
Thoroughbred Ink
Although the site no longer publishes new American Racing information, it is a huge repository of horse racing knowledge, including a guide to reading the Daily Racing Form Past Performances, track codes, distance equivalents, and more.
About the Author:
Pedigree expert Laurie Ross grew up reading the American Racing Form, has been around horses her entire life, and has spent the last decade intensely studying breeding and pedigrees. In 2008, she left the legal industry to devote herself to full-time pedigree consulting. The following year, she founded the popular pedigree website Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds with the launch of her acclaimed 2009 Guide to Freshman Sires. Renowned author and pedigree expert Lauren Stitch described Ross as "one of the bright new lights of pedigree handicapping."
Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds
offers a specialized pedigree-based approach to handicapping juvenile and stakes races. The site also offers complimentary handicapping seminars as well as private pedigree research and consultation. **JUST RELEASED** Get this must-have e-book to find those American racing winning bets
Past Tips Results and Freshmen Sires
Welcome to Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds, home of the 2009 and 2010 Freshman Sire E-Books. The E-Books were created as a comprehensive guide for handicappers to learn about new sires and what to expect from their first crop of runners.
American Racing by Laurie Ross
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