and make a sports bet profit whatever the outcome of the event.
'Winner guaranteed' is not a term that readily comes to mind when backing horses however there is a way to achieve this seemingly impossible outcome if we place our sports bets on Betfair or similar exchange - the answer is to 'green up'.
The opportunity arises if our selection is shortening in price after placing a win or place bet.
Suppose for example on 30/12/2011 I place a £10 bet on Restless Bay in the 16:40 at Wolverhampton and the price I obtained early doors is 25.0.
During the course of the morning it is evident that the price is shortening considerably and I make the decision to green up ie take a profit whatever the outcome of the race by placing a lay sports bet on the selection.
Just before the off Restless Bay is trading at 8.54 and I wish to calculate what stake I should use.
Let us suppose I placed £10 to win at the early odds of 25.00 and to calculate the stake for my lay bet I need to multiply my initial stake times my initial back odds (£10 x 25.0 = £250)
I then divide that by the lay price of 8.54 (£250/8.54 = £29.27)- So the stake I use to lay the horse is £29.27
If horse wins I gain £250 less £10 stake = £240 less 5% commission = £228. If the horse wins I lose the lay part of the sports bet 29.27 x 8.54 = £250 less stake of £29.27 = £220.73
So if the horse wins my profit on the trade is £228 - £220.73 = £7.27
So if the horse loses my profit on the trade is £29.27 less 5% commission = £27.81 less back stake £10 = £17.81
I can apply the same principal if the price is drifting so in the previous example say I lay for £10 at an early price of 8.54
I multiply the lay price by my lay stake (£10 x 8.54 = £85.40) and then divide that by the odds which have drifted out to 25.0 (£85.40 /25.0 = £3.42)
I now back the selection with a stake of £3.42 at the new odds of 25.0
It is possible to use a Betfair trading bot that will automatically calculate the correct green up stakes and then place the bet for you in a matter of seconds.
The bot I recommend is
BF Bot Manager which is very easy to use, with helpful instructions and excellent aftercare by the owner, Rade.
You can even get a FREE 5 day trial of the software - if you do this, make sure you are ready to go, with a Betfair bank in place so that you are able to make the most of your 3 free days.
Returns Policy: Once a customer has agreed to pay for a product or service no returns will be permitted or payments returned.
Above policies updated 15 March 2018