Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

For followers of Cheltenham Gold Cup trends the 2016 renewal appears a wide open race, with several of the likely participants already having achieved high rank in the chasing hierarchy.

Kauto Star Wins The Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

The Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends refer to certain patterns or characteristics that have historically been associated with successful horses in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the prestigious National Hunt horse race held annually at the Cheltenham Festival in England.

These trends are based on the analysis of past winners and can provide insights into the types of horses that tend to perform well in the race. While trends are not foolproof and exceptions can always occur, they offer a valuable guide for punters, trainers, and owners when assessing the chances of horses in the upcoming race.

Several key Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends may be considered:

1. Age of the Winner: In general, horses aged between 7 and 9 years old have historically performed well in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Younger horses may lack the experience, while older horses may face stamina concerns.

2. Cheltenham Experience: Horses that have previously performed well at the Cheltenham Festival, especially in the Gold Cup, tend to have an advantage. Familiarity with the course and the unique demands of Cheltenham is often considered a positive factor.

3. Form and Recent Performances: Horses entering the Gold Cup with good recent form, especially in high-profile races, are often favored. Consistency and strong performances in the lead-up races are crucial indicators.

4. Stamina and Endurance: Given the challenging nature of the Gold Cup, horses with proven stamina and the ability to stay the 3-mile, 2 ½-furlong distance are typically favored. The Gold Cup is a true test of a horse's staying power.

5. Trainer and Jockey Records: Successful trainers and jockeys who have a history of performing well at the Cheltenham Festival may influence betting trends. The combination of a skilled trainer and an experienced jockey can make a significant difference.

6. Weight Carried: The weight a horse carries can impact its performance, and trends may emerge regarding the ideal weight range for Gold Cup winners.

7. Breeding and Pedigree: Horses with strong pedigrees and a lineage that suggests an affinity for longer distances may be viewed more favorably in the context of the Gold Cup.

8. Course Conditions: The ability to handle different ground conditions is crucial. Some horses perform better on soft or heavy ground, while others excel on firmer surfaces.

It's important to note that while these trends can provide valuable insights, each horse is unique, and there are always exceptions. Additionally, the racing landscape can evolve, and new trends may emerge over time.

Punters and racing enthusiasts often combine these trends with current form, trainer comments, and other factors to make informed decisions on which horses to back in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Cheltenham Racecourse

Let me start by listing the 10 most influential trends:

1.     The last 53 winners were aged 10 or younger

2.     A Grade 1 chase had previously been won by the last 15 winners

3.     14 of the last 15 winners ran in that seasons King George VI or Lexus Chase

4.     13 of the last 14 winners came from the first 3 in the betting

5.     14 of the last 16 winners had already won that season

6.     An official rating of  166+ had been achieved by 12 of the last 14 winners

7.     12 of the last 14 winners finished either 1st or 2nd last time out

8.     A win or 2nd place at the Festival had been achieved by 11 of the last 14 winners

9.     9 of the last 13 winners had not had a run in the same calendar year

10. 9 of the last 15 winners had their first races in Irish Points

Although the final declarations have yet to be made at the time of writing, we can assess some of the more likely candidates.

Trends figures are as known at 13 Jan. 2016 e.g. OR (6) and current price (4)

Don Cossack – trends 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10

Good overall trends but of slight concern is that he fell in the King George and also once at the Cheltenham Festival where he has not finished in the first 2.

Vautour – 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Fair trends including a good 2nd in the King George VI and a previous win at the Festival.

Cue Card – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Almost a full house of trends and has an excellent chance of winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup trends wise.

Djakadam – 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

Currently 7/2 favourite after a very convincing win by 12 lengths in the John Durkan Chase at Punchestown. Owned by top Irish trainer Willie Mullins, this horse represents his trainer’s best chance yet of carrying off the Blue Riband prize.

Don Poli - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9

A strong set of trends and another string to Willie Mullins’ bow; he won this season’s renewal of the Lexus Chase.

In summary I think it likely that Cue Card will get the better of Djakadam with Don Poli not far away in 3rd.

Update after the event

The 2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup was won by Don Cossack, ridden by J Cooper and trained by Gordon Elliott.

Position of Horse

1st Don Cossack (GER)

2nd Djakadam (FR)

3rd Don Poli (IRE)

4th Carlingford Lough (IRE)

5th Irish Cavalier (IRE)

6th Smad Place (FR)

7th O'Faolains Boy (IRE)

8th On His Own (IRE)

Fell Cue Card

Don Cossack, the 9/4 favourite, tracked the leaders until the 17th fence, when he made his challenge and took the lead. He stayed on well to win by 4.5 lengths from Djakadam, with Don Poli a further 7 lengths back in third.

Cue Card, who was sent off as the 5/2 2nd favourite but fell at the third last fence when in contention.

The race was run on good ground in fine weather.

Back to Cheltenham Festival