Race analysis for 2015 renewal
Tuesday 16th Queen Anne Stakes
Night Of Thunder rates a decent each way bet at 6/1 generally against the likes of Solow and Able Friend.
Solow is a likely winner after his breathtaking display in Dubai despite the form being slightly suspect while Able Friend plies his trade primarily at Sha Tin.
The straight mile of the Ascot race will suit Night Of Thunder as his success in this year’s Lockinge demonstrates and the 6/1 on offer looks too good to pass up.
Win Solow - Each Way Night Of Thunder
St James Palace Stakes
Gleneagles is hard to oppose after his demolition of the 2000 Guineas field at Newmarket and despite the presence of strong opposition in the form of the French runner Make Believe and the unbeaten Consort, Aidan O’Brien’s charge should see them off.
Wednesday 17th Prince Of Wales Stakes
Free Eagle stands out in a big International field. The 3/1 about Dermot Weld’s charge looks generous after running away with a Group 3 race at Leopardstown last September and then finishing a good 3rd in the Group 1 Champion Stakes. Despite not having a run this season his trainer is sure to have him spot on for this assignment and his evident potential could see come out on top.
An each way saver on the 8/1 Grey Gatsby is also worth considering. He won the Dante at York and overcame Australia in the Irish Champion Stakes; most recently finishing runner up to Solow in the Dubai Duty Free.
Win Free Eagle Each Way Grey Gatsby
The Gold Cup has been won by Irish yards in 7 of the last 9 years and Dermot Weld’s Forgotten Times holds strong claims being unbeaten in 3 outings last term, one of them a Group 2.
He extended his unbeaten run by winning the Group 3 Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan last month and open to further improvement is a worthy favourite at a general 5/2.
However there are others with progressive profiles who could offer better value , most notably Mizzou at a general 6/1, who has the pedigree to stay the 2m4f distance.
Mizzou won the the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes over 2m at Ascot in April, form that has been franked by the runner up Vent De Force who won the Group 3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown in May.
The best way to approach the race may be to back Forgotten Times to win with Mizzou backed each way.
Royal Ascot 2014
The Royal Ascot meeting runs from Tuesday 17th June until Saturday 21 st June and I shall be analyzing a few of the most high profile races with the help of Nick Hardiman of Betting School.
If you are planning on attending then you will need to check out the latest Fashion Trends and Beauty Tips that everyone is using at the Ascot Festival.
3 favourites have won in last 17 renewals
7 2nd favourites have won in last 17 renewals
13 4yo's have won since 1997
14 of the last 17 winners had run within 4 months
Only 1 filly has won since 1997 (Goldikova)
Recent trainers to have won the race include Aidan O'Brien (3 wins), Richard Hannon (2 wins)
Toronado is the current favourite but has not run for 10 months
Sky Lantern is a filly
Magician is out of form having been beaten by Noble Mission in the Tattersall's Gold Cup
Verrazano was well beaten by Olympic Glory in the Lockinge although the latter's poor run in the Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp can be excused as he failed to get the trip.
Aidan O'Brien's Verrazano has strong claims on the trends as 2nd favourite.
Royal Ascot Trends:
6 of the last 8 renewals have been won by overseas runners - Australia, New Zealand, France
Favourites and joint favourites have won just 2 races since 1997
Only 3 winners since 1997 have been returned at 6/1 or less
3yo sprinters have a poor record with just 3 winners from 67 entries
8 of the last 10 winners were aged between 5yo - 7yo
8 of the last 17 winners won this on their seasonal debut
A lot will depend on the going and if "soft" is in the going then Hot Streak will be hard to beat after his eye catching win in the Temple Stakes.
Shea Shea is the only runner from overseas and is a worthy 2nd favourite but it is worth noting he has yet to win in this country after 3 attempts.
If the going firms up to good, good to firm, last year's winner Sole Power could reprise his winning performance.
Maarek and Pearl Secret also merit respect if there is cut in the ground while Ahtoug could gain a place at a decent price.
Royal Ascot Trends:
15 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
16 of the last 17 winners were 4yo or 5yo
12 of the last 17 winners won last time out
8 of the last 17 winners had not won at the distance but are more likely to be stepping down rather than up in distance
French trainers have won 3 of the last 7 renewals and Aidan O'Brien 2
French raider Treve is the ante-post favourite while Aidan O'Brien runs Magician.
Royal Ascot Trends:
No National Hunt trainer has won in the last 17 years
Aidan O'Brien has won 5 of the last 8 renewals (Yeats won 4 times)
13 of the last 17 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
15 of the last 17 winners were aged between 4yo and 6yo
14 of the last 17 winners had a run between 16 - 60 days prior to the race and most achieved a LTO top 3 finish
12 of the last 17 winners had winning form over at least 2m
On these trends Leading Light and Brown Panther make most appeal while the consistent Royal Diamond could make the frame at a big price.
5 winners have come from overseas since 2002
3yo's have a poor record with just 2 wins from 54 runners
Only 2 winners from the last 17 have defied an absence of more than 60 days
Only 3 favourites have won from the last 18
Only 4 winners from last 17 have been returned at 6/1 or less
All of the last 8 winners were rated higher than 110
Until the final declarations it is hard to be too specific about the runners however if they turn up Slade Power and Gordon Lord Byron have solid claims especially of the rain arrives.
One stand out entry is Kevin Ryan's Astaire who is only entered for this race. Although a 3yo he is rated 114 and beat Hot Streak in the Middle Park Stakes and ran 2nd to Maarek in the Duke Of York Stakes.