Royal Ascot 2012 trends and analysis will help find winners at this prestigious meeting
Royal Ascot meeting Day 1 Tuesday 19th June 2012 analysis:
14:30, Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (Str)
Four year olds at the head of the market are the way to go here and preference is given to previous Lockinge Stakes runners.
Concentrate on the first 4 in the betting:
Frankel is the odds on favourite whose chance needs little comment from me, while those looking for place value should consider Excelebration 11.50, Farhh 15.50, So You Think 17.50
15:05, King's Stand Stakes (Group 1)
Favourites have a job to get their heads in front here which puts a dampener on current favourite Ortensia's 6.00 chances but that's not to say he is not top class, (won the Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored By Emirates NBD (Group 1) (Turf) ), Meydan March 2012)
A big percentage of winners have won a Group 1 or Group 2 race.
2nd favourite Bated Breath 8.60 won the Betfred.com Temple Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 2) in May 2012.
International raiders at Royal Ascot have a good record (won 6 of last 8 renewals). As also have those filling the top four places in the Prix Du Gros-Chene.
Tuesday’s Group 1 Royal Ascot 2012 King’s Stand Stakes looks as though it is going to live up to all expectations as 25 horses stood their ground at the five-day stage for the five-furlong sprint, the first of two legs of the Global Sprint Challenge being staged at the eagerly anticipated Betfair Royal Ascot 2012 meeting.
Roger Charlton’s exciting Bated Breath, recent winner of the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock over the minimum trip, currently heads the ante-post market at a top offer of 5/1 as he goes in search of his first Group 1 success after coming close on a number of occasion last term.
His recent fortunes include being beaten just a nose in the Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock in September by Dream Ahead, after having failed by just half-a-length when second to the same horse in the July Cup a couple of months earlier.
Wizz Kid is another leading contender after winning in fine style in his native France recently in Group 2 company, while high-class Australian mare Ortensia will bid to complete a four-timer having recorded wins at Flemington and Ascot (in Australia), before putting up a tremendous performance to win the valuable Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan in Dubai on World Cup night.
She got the better of Ireland’s Sole Power, another set to take his chance on Tuesday in what is building up to be a fabulous contest that is eagerly anticipated by punters on Betfair.com
Last year’s winner, the Robert Cowell-trained Prohibit, is another strong candidate and a return to the scene of his greatest triumph could very easily spark a revival in his fortunes, while reports suggest that Bryan Smart’s Prix de l’Abbaye winner Tangerine Trees has been working very well on the home gallops at Thirsk and is also set to give a very good account of himself after failing to shine on his seasonal return at Haydock, behind Bated Breath.
Selection: Win Bated Breath - Place: Ortensia
Royal Ascot 2012 15:45 St James's Palace Stakes (Group 1)
We are looking for a horse with single figure odds, who has won a Group 1 race....
Power 3.34 won the Abu Dhabi Irish 2000 Guineas (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) at the Curragh in May 2012
The nearest shortest priced runner is Most Improved at 7.20 who was 3rd to Parish Hall in the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) at Newmarket on October 2012 .
Place: Most Improved
Royal Ascot 2012 16:25 Coventry Stakes (Group 2)
Aidan O'Brien and Barry Hills have a good record in this Royal Ascot race, the former winning 5 of the last 12 renewals. A horse that won its sole start has often gone on to win this. The winner is usually found in the first four in the betting currently:
Dawn Approach 4.50 - unbeaten in 3 starts - J S Bolger
Cristoforo Colombo 5.50 - won sole start - Aidan O'Brien
Sir Prancealot 7.00- won both starts - Richard Hannon
Englishman 8.0 - won sole start - Charles Hills
Selection: Cristoforo Colombo
Royal Ascot 2012 17:00 Ascot Stakes (Handicap)
A 4yo or 5yo carrying over 9st and who was placed in the Chester Cup is an ideal candidate for this ultimate test of stamina.
A win at the distance 1m 4f or further is a must
While Martin Pipe enjoyed great success here there is no reason why his son David cannot maintain the tradition.
David Pipe won with Junior in 2010.
The winner in 2011 was Veiled 11/2 who was 3rd favourite
Selection: Cosimo de Medici
Place - Veiled
Royal Ascot 2012 17:35 Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed)
Although not a strong Royal Ascot race for trends followers, 22 of the last 23 winners came from the first 6 in the betting.
Trainers to follow are Mick Channon, John Best, Jamie Osbourne and Barry Hills.
Although it should be noted the Irish do not have a good record.
Suits fillies and debutants - expect some decent prices
The winner in 2011 was Frederick Engels 9/4 f
Selection: Place: Pay Freeze
Royal Ascot 2012 Day 2 Wednesday 20th June 2012 analysis:
14:30 Jersey Stakes
A good guide is the King Charles II stakes at Newmarket for horses that finished 1st or 2nd - won by Aljamaaheer (IRE) 100/30 trainer Roger Varian, 2nd The Nile 2/1F.
Last time out winners have won 50% of the last 12 renewals
Of the trainers M. Stoute, R. Hannon and J Noseda have done best
Royal Ascot 2012 15:05 Windsor Forest Stakes
Not much in the way of stats to work on but Sir Michael Stoute has twice won this. He does very well with older fillies.
Respect French horses and concentrate on the 1st 2 in the betting
Emulous 3/1 (who beat last years winner Dolly For Lolly at the Curragh May 2011),
Nahrain 4/1 trainer Roger Varian and won the Qatar Prix De L'Opera (Group1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Turf) at Longchamp in 2011.
Selection: Win Chachamaidee
Royal Ascot 2012 15:50 Prince Of Wales's Stakes
Some very high class horses have won this; Dubai Millennium, Fantastic Light, Grandera, Nayef, Rakti, Azamour, Ouija Board, Manduro and Duke Of Marmalade.
This list could well be added to by O'Brien's So You Think after O'Brien's wife Annemarie commented on Twitter "Just jumping off, settled in nicely behind his lead horse, starting to move upsides, eases to the front. Easy, 15 lengths clear. Phew!"
Since 2000 every winner has won a Group 1 race - Group 1 winners running this year:
Tattersalls Gold Cup winners have a good record in this race and won convincingly this year by Aidan O'Brien's So You Think
French winners of the Prix Ganay
Winner is most often found in the first 4 in the betting and was a last time out winner:
So You Think 2/1
Carlton House 4/1
Planteur 9/1 has won Prix Ganay
Must have proven stamina beyond 1m
Selection: Win So You Think
Royal Ascot 2012 16:20 Royal Hunt Cup Handicap
4yo or 5yo's rule the roost here and previous track form is a bonus especially in the Victoria Cup won this year by Global Village
The last time Ireland won this was the year England won the football World Cup.
Trainers to note: J. Fanshawe, (no runner) Luca Cumani runs Start Right, Sir Michael Stoute (may run) Heavenly Dawn.
First 4 in the betting:
Captain Bertie 10/1
Edinburgh Knight 12/1
Arabian Star 14/1
Selection: Arabian Star
Royal Ascot 2012 17:00 Queen Mary Stakes
Unbeaten last time out winners hold most of the cards here and we are looking for a filly with plenty of speed in her Sire's profile.
Mick Channon and Richard Hannon - do well in this race.
The Irish also do well
Selection: Graphic Guest
Royal Ascot 2012 17:35 Sandringham Handicap
A rating of 90+ and in the first 6 in the betting will capture our winning filly.
Ten of the last 12 winners had won earlier in the season and 8 of them last time out.
Royal Ascot Day 3 21st June 2012 analysis:
Royal Ascot 2012 14:30 Norfolk Stakes
A last time out winner is a strong stat and 10 of the last winners were undefeated
Fillies have a good record
Mark Johnston, Richard Hannon, Peter Chapple-Hyam and Howard Johnson have a good record in this race
Those who have raced solely at 5f also have a fine record
The favourite or second favourite have won the past 5 renewals
Oppose horses who have raced over farther than 5f
Royal Ascot 2012 15:05 Ribblesdale Stakes
Be wary of horses that run at Epsom as they have a poor record here.
Listed winners are also well represented in the winners enclosure
9 out 10 finished in the first 3 last time out
7 out of 10 have won over at least 1m 2f -
Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and John Gosden
Dinvar Diva, The Fugue - John Gosden
Selection: The Fugue
Royal Ascot 2012 15:45 Gold Cup
Group 1 form over middle distances is a strong stat
4yo to 6yo have won the last 14 Royal Ascot renewals
Won earlier in the season and contested the Henry II stakes or the Yorkshire Cup
Yeats won this race 4 times from 2006 to 2009 and now retired it will be a rare horse to take on his mantle.
Yeats trainer, Aidan O'Brien presumably has a good eye for horses proven over 1m 4f that will stay the extra mile and his Fame And Glory looks the part. He won Vintage Crop Stakes (Listed Race) at Navan this year and has previously won at Group 1 level.
Selection: Fame And Glory
Royal Ascot 2012 16:25 Britannia Stakes Heritage Handicap
Finishing in the 1st 4 last time out is a prerequisite
9st is as much as a winner will wish to carry
Last time out maidens are a no-no
Lightly raced runner in the first 6 in the betting
Trainers to note: John Gosden or James Fanshawe
There are few unexposed runners in this nowadays.
Selection: Win Frog Hollow
17.00 Tercentenary Stakes (Group 3)
Mainly contested by progressive 3yo's
Focus on horses beaten in a Group or Listed race last time out
French trained runners
This is not a race in which Michael Stoute excels
Selection: Win Starboard
17:35 King George V Heritage Handicap
Look for a lightly raced horse who won or was placed last time out
Odds between 7-1 and 14-1
Not a great race for favourites
Selection: Win Gabrial The Great
Royal Ascot Day 4 22nd June 2012 analysis:
14:30 Albany Stakes
With only 6 renewals of this race there is not a great deal to go on although a few stats are beginning to emerge.
Horses that won their maidens last time out and with only one start have won at least half the contests.
While trainers Jeremy Noseda and Mick Channon have won 2 each.
15:05 King Edward VII Stakes
A punter friendly race in that 12 of the last 14 winners started
favourite or second favourite. Currently
Ran in one of the Derby trials
Still aspiring to win a Group race
Yet to win over 1m 4f
The Irish have a poor record in the race and Aidan O'Brien runs Seville
Selection: Noble Mission
15:45 Coronation Stakes
The Newmarket 1000 Guineas and the Irish equivalent at the Curragh are good pointers in this race
7 of the last 8 winners contested the 1000 Guineas of which 6 could be found in the first 6 places
A place in the French 1000 Guineas is a good stat
Favourites also have a good record currently:
16:25 Wolferton Handicap Stakes
Lightly raced improvers are the ones to latch on to here and look for horses that made the frame last time out
Winner could well come in at a big price - recent winning odds 12-1, 16-1, 25-1
Trainers: John Gosden, Mark Johnston and Ed Dunlop
Selection: Ottoman Empire
17:00 Queen's Vase
Stamina is well to the fore here in this 2m race.
Several winners were unraced as 2yo.
Mark Johnston has won 5 of the last 9 renewals
Sir Michael Stoute and Godolphin are also up there.
8 of the last 9 winners were all beaten last time out.
First 4 in the betting
17:35 Buckingham Palace Stakes
Big price outsiders from smaller stables have won this in recent years
Horses who have done well over 7f
Trainers John Dunlop and James Fanshawe
Selection: Eton Forever
Royal Ascot Day 5 23rd June 2012 analysis
Royal Ascot meeting - 14:30 Chesham Stakes 7f
Sires with a good stamina index (10f+) is a good guide to their offsprings chance as this is a 2yo race with little previous form for guidance.
Once raced winners do well and focus on the first 3 in the betting currently:
Fillies fare well and horses trained by Mark Johnston or John Gosden
Royal Ascot meeting - 15:05 Hardwicke Stakes
A large number of winners ran in the Coronation Cup and 11 of the last 13 winners have won a Group 2 or 3 race. Stamina is important and a win at 1m4f helps.
Trainers: Mark Johnston, Sir Michael Stoute or Saeed Bin Suroor
Selection: Sea Moon
Royal Ascot meeting - 15:45 Golden Jubilee Stakes
A win at 6f is obligatory
3yo's don't win this
Course experience is very helpful
1st or 2nd in Duke of York Stakes
won a Group or Listed race
Runners in the Kings Stand Stakes
Winner could be a big price
However this is likely to go to the Australian wonder horse Black Caviar who attempts her 22nd win on the trot
Selection: Black Caviar
Royal Ascot meeting - 16:25 Wokingham Stakes
4yo and 5yo's do best in this
Finished in the first 4 last time out
Carrying 8st 13lbs or more
Lightly raced this season
Contested the Victoria Cup
Avoid those drawn stalls 10-19 ie down the middle of the track
Royal Ascot meeting - 17:00 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes
9 of the last 11 winners carried 9st+
4yo and 5yo's dominate
A last time out winner is a plus
Sir Michael Stoute and Mark Johnston have a good record here
Royal Ascot meeting - 17:35 Queen Alexandra Stakes
This race is a fair trek by any flat standards and stamina will be at a premium.
Those at the head of the market have the best chance
No winner older than 6 since 1990
Concentrate on horses that have contested Group or Listed races
Contested this race or the Ascot Stakes