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Trainers Ratings can boost profits

Are there trainers ratings to help us decide if a horse will run up to form?

The Racing Post produces a rating that indicates whether a trainer has his horses in good order and this is a fair indication of the likelihood of a horse running to form.

The RTF% rating is given after a trainer’s name on the daily race cards for each horse and is worked out by taking the expected rating for all the trainers’ horses and comparing it with the actual rating for the race. The nearer the figures agree the higher the percentage rating given. This could range from 10 to 100.

Champion Trainer Paul NichollsChampion Trainer Paul Nicholls

The official Racing Post explanation of the RTF% rating is:

The rtf% is a measure of trainer form. It indicates the percentage of a trainer's runners who have run to form, based on a comparison of each runner's actual and expected rating in each race.

To calculate the rtf%, the performance of each of the trainer's runners for the period is rated and compared to the rating it could have been expected to obtain. The rtf% figures present a clearer picture of a stable's form than the simple wins-to-runs ratio.

It is important to bear in mind that it is only calculated for horses with an RPR (Racing Post Rating) figure. If few of the trainers runners have an RPR then treat any RTF% trainers ratings with caution.

Check that there is enough data for the rating to be accurate  - obviously the more data we have the more accurate the ratings will be, although we must be aware that the RTF% rating is taken from only 2 weeks past data. Also a trainer’s results for the previous day are not included, so check these to see if any adjustment should be made.

The rating can now be used in conjunction with other racing trends and form study. The best way to proceed is first to eliminate the no hopers in a race i.e. those horses that are clearly outclassed and any others unsuited to the conditions.

Having whittled down the field to a few serious contenders we can now check the RTF% trainers rating ensuring the trainer has had sufficient runners in the past 2 weeks to give a reasonably accurate reflection of his / her form. Finally check the trainer’s results for the previous day.

An RTF% figure of 50 or more indicates that a horse is likely to run to their RPR figure. Anything less than this suggests that the horse may struggle to run to form in today’s race.

Racing Post Trainers RatingsRacing Post Trainers Ratings

Trainers Ratings Data

By way of example let's look at the Ballylinch Stud "Priory Belle" Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) in 2024 at Leopardstown 07 April 2.55pm

From the graphic below it can be seen that the trainer of the horse  'A Lilac Rolla', P Twomey is given the max rating of 100% by the Racing Post.

TIP - To find trainers with a max 100% rating go to the Racing Post online - click Racecards (top left) - click on the racecard for a racecourse - at top left under 'Today' is the name of the racecourse in small print - click this and all the racecards at that racecourse will be displayed on one page. Use ctrl+f and enter 100 in the box. This will highlight all the trainers with a 100% rating (ignore any other '100's'). Do the same for all races making a note of the horses that meet the criteria.

Racing Post RatingRacing Post Rating

A fair few websites also devise their own ratings so let's compare what they have to say about this horse 'A Lilac Rolla'. First up is the RaceAdvisor

They display their trainer rating under the trainer's name on their race card. In this case the rating for P Twomey is expressed as a percentage - 40%. They also colour the rating in green if the rating is considered to be good. The 40% is the highest rating of any trainer in this race.

Race Advisor RatingsRace Advisor Ratings

Finally let us look at how Form Ratings rate the horses. Basically they produce ratings for six criteria:

LR – Last Run. An indication of how well each horse in the race performed last time out.

•2LR – Second to Last Run. Useful if you want to see more established form (ruling out good (or bad!) luck in a single race.

•3LR – Third from Last Run. Helps you see whether “Form is temporary, whilst class is permanent”

•SPD – Speed. Who are the speed demons, and who’s running through treacle?

•HRS – Horse Race Score. How well a horse has run in races like this.

•FRN – Form Ratings Number. This is the rating to rule all ratings – our secret blend of more than 30 factors, all cross-referenced to produce ONE single number.

They don't produce specific ratings for trainers but the nearest thing is their 'Progressives' horses which pinpoint the horses which have shown improvement in their most recent races.

In the graphic below you will see that our horse 'A Lilac Rolla' is included in this list.

Form Ratings For ProgessivesForm Ratings For Progessives

So using these three sources of ratings we have a sure indication that 'A Lilac Rolla' stands a good chance of winning which is exactly what happened as the horse came first at a starting price of 9/2.

In Conclusion

Trainers' recent performance can be a helpful factor in predicting how a horse will run. The Racing Post provides a Trainer Form (RTF%) rating based on how well a trainer's horses have done compared to expectations in the past two weeks.

Here's how to use the RTF% rating:

  • Look for a rating of 50% or higher, suggesting the horse is likely to perform well.
  • Consider the trainer's results from the previous day as well.
  • Remember, this is just one piece of data. Combine it with other factors like horse ratings and race conditions from other  rating systems such as offered by RaceAdvisor and Form Ratings, which can provide additional insights.

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