Form Ratings Free Strategy Guide

Daily tip research takes effort. If you find value in this free service, consider a small donation in support. Thanks Chris

Sovereignty Heads Breeders Cup Classic Contenders

Sovereignty Heads Breeders Cup Classic Contenders

We did not get a US Triple Crown winner this summer. Yet, we did witness as close to perfection as possible as legendary trainer Bill Mott’s Sovereignty claimed both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, while choosing to skip the middle leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes.

It may disappoint a racing public hungry for history, yet it is not uncommon for horses to avoid the second or third leg of the Triple Crown after winning the Kentucky Derby. Mott and his team are pragmatic, and in hindsight, it feels like the correct decision was made to focus on the Belmont Stakes. 

Sovereignty’s performances have raised speculation about what comes next. There is a possibility of the Travers Stakes in August, but there is plenty of buzz around Sovereignty’s chances in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the fall.

He’s currently priced around 3/1 to win it, although the horse racing betting markets could fluctuate between now and then. Nonetheless, it’s challenging to pick a better candidate.

He looked imperious across the early summer, and Mott knows precisely what it takes to win a Breeders’ Cup Classic, having done so with the legendary Cigar in 1995 and Drosselmeyer in 2011.

Training and Preparation Insights

The preparation methods of Bill Mott are methodical and patient, as evidenced by his positive approach during solid workouts in preparation for the Breeders' Cup. His training philosophy centres on fostering bonds built on respect and understanding, prioritising the individual needs of each horse and tailoring training accordingly. 

Mott's approach with Sovereignty—strategically skipping the Preakness—mirrors his historical pattern of long-term planning. With Cigar, he gave the horse the first half of the year off, bringing him back to racing in July.

This patient approach, combined with his ability to adapt surface preferences (as he did with Cigar from turf to dirt), suggests that Sovereignty's campaign has been carefully orchestrated for an autumn peak rather than pursuing Triple Crown glory.

Jockeys leave Del Mar Paddock - venue for Breeders Cup 2025

Mindframe is also in the frame

That said, there will be stiff competition, as always. The multiple Grade-1-winning Mindframe is generally cited as the second-favorite among sportsbooks, with odds of around 6/1.

Todd Pletcher’s horse is unbeaten as a 4-year-old thus far, and he had a second-place finish in the Belmont Stakes last year.  There’s a lot to like about him, and of course, all bettors will be taking any entry from Pletcher seriously.

There’s also the possibility of a rematch between Sovereignty and Journalism. The latter finished 2nd behind Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes but was able to capitalize on Sovereignty’s absence in the Preakness Stakes. There’s not much between them, so you shouldn’t rule him out at 8/1.

Interestingly, three horses are trending about 10/1 in the betting markets with little to choose between them – Sierra Leone, Fierceness, and Forever Young. You may recall that the trio was 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

All have had ups and downs in their seasons as 4-year-olds thus far. Forever Young (an exciting Japanese horse) is perhaps the most interesting of the three.

His business has been in the Middle East this year, winning the Saudi Cup and 3rd in the Dubai World Cup. If – and it remains a big if – he runs in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he may be the smart bet.

Track Conditions and Venue

The 2024 Breeders' Cup was held at Del Mar for the third time in 8 years Breeders' Cup Announces Del Mar as Host Site for 2024 World Championships +2, and the 2025 race will unfold at Del Mar racetrack, a picturesque venue nestled along the Pacific coast in Southern California, covering a challenging distance of 1 1/4 miles on a dirt track.

Del Mar's unique characteristics significantly impact racing dynamics: the seaside location creates consistent weather patterns but can produce varying track conditions based on marine layer moisture. 

The track tends to favour speed horses early in the meet but can become more conducive to closers as the surface ages. Del Mar's tight turns and relatively short stretch (7 furlongs) often benefit horses with tactical speed rather than pure stamina, which could influence how trainers prepare their horses and jockeys plan their race strategy.

The consistent left-handed configuration also means horses familiar with similar tracks may have advantages over those primarily trained on different surfaces.

International Competition

While  Sovereignty heads Breeders Cup Classic contenders the race has increasingly attracted international entries, fundamentally changing race dynamics.

European horses often bring different running styles—typically more patient, stamina-oriented approaches—compared to American speed-focused tactics.

Japanese horses like Forever Young represent a third tactical dimension, often combining stamina with explosive finishing kicks. This international presence forces American trainers to consider different pace scenarios and race shapes.

European entries may be more comfortable with the classic 1 1/4-mile distance, while Japanese horses often excel at timing their moves in large, competitive fields.

The presence of international runners also affects betting markets, as overseas form can be difficult for American handicappers to evaluate, potentially creating value opportunities for informed bettors who understand international racing patterns.

Physical Condition Updates

Between summer speculation and fall racing, continuous monitoring of each horse's physical condition becomes crucial. Training schedules intensify as the race approaches, making horses more susceptible to minor injuries or setbacks. 

Sovereignty's condition after skipping the Preakness should show him fresher than typical Triple Crown campaigners, but his fitness level for the longer gap between races becomes a question. Mott's attention to solid workouts in preparation demonstrates his focus on maintaining peak condition.

For competitors like Mindframe, the summer campaign schedule affects autumn freshness. Forever Young's international travel between Middle East racing and potential American competition adds complexity to condition assessment. 

Regular veterinary checks, workout reports, and public appearances provide ongoing indicators of each horse's readiness, with even minor issues potentially shifting betting markets and trainer confidence significantly as the race approaches.

Sovereignty Heads Breeders Cup Classic Contenders Conclusion

While repeat back-to-back winners of the Breeders’ Cup Classic are rare (only Tiznow: 2000; 2001 has achieved the feat), several trainers have won multiple Classics with different horses across different years.

It should be remarked that there is no discernible pattern to say that horses in their 3-year-old seasons have a better chance of winning than those in their 4-year-old seasons and vice versa.  

While there's no strict age advantage, the physical demands of a full campaign often favour fresher horses, which could support Mott's strategic decision to skip the Preakness with Sovereignty.

We have also had a handful of 5-year-olds winning the race, most recently Knicks Go in 2021. 

Yet, going on the formbook today, Sovereignty looks a worthy favourite. As he missed the Preakness Stakes, he won’t get to emulate American Pharoah as a Grand Slam winner, but he could pull off a remarkable treble.

It’s worth watching the markets across the summer and early fall. But for now, Sovereignty will continue to turn the most heads.

You Might Like These

Kentucky Derby Odds: Will there be a hometown favorite?

Preakness Stakes Odds: Will the champions face fresh challengers?

Belmont Stakes Odds: At 1½ miles, stamina becomes the great equalizer as longshots can threaten.

Breeders' Cup Odds: International talent collides with American speed, reshuffling expectations across the board.

Dubai World Cup Odds: Under desert lights, can a Japanese sensation prevail against the world's elite.

Pegasus Cup Odds: Retirement beckons for champions seeking one final payday at America's richest race.

Bet on Horses: Every wager tells a story of hope against mathematical probability.

Kentucky Derby Betting: Beneath fancy hats and mint juleps, fortunes change hands with each thundering hoof.

Preakness Stakes Betting: The middle jewel rewards those who recognize when Derby form holds true.

Belmont Stakes Betting: Distance separates champions from pretenders when the final furlong tests them all.

Breeders Cup Betting: Global racing converges for two days where value hides in plain sight.

Returns Policy: Once a customer has agreed to pay for a product or service no returns will be permitted or payments returned.

All PayPal transactions are subject to the PayPal Privacy Policy

Privacy Policy: Personal details provided to this site by an individual may be shared with third parties unless requested otherwise.

Above policies updated 15 March 2018