Form Ratings Free Strategy Guide

Betting on the Belmont Stakes 2025

Betting on the Belmont Stakes 2025: What to Expect This Year

American Horse Racing

The Belmont Stakes, often dubbed the "Test of the Champion," stands as the thrilling culmination of thoroughbred horse racing's elusive Triple Crown. For three-year-old horses, it represents the ultimate test of stamina, heart, and determination. 

As the final jewel in the Triple Crown series – following the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes – the Belmont Stakes holds immense significance, capable of cementing legacies or shattering Triple Crown dreams.

Understanding The Belmont Stakes

The Belmont Stakes boasts a rich history, dating back to 1867, making it the oldest of the Triple Crown races. Its significance lies not only in its tradition but also in its demanding nature.

Historically run at 1.5 miles (about 2,400 meters) at Belmont Park, the 2024 and 2025 editions are being run at a slightly shorter distance of 1.25 miles (10 furlongs) at Saratoga Race Course due to the ongoing renovations at Belmont Park. 

This distance adjustment is a crucial factor for handicappers to consider, as it might favour horses with a blend of speed and stamina rather than pure endurance over the traditional gruelling 1.5 miles. The race is exclusively for three-year-old thoroughbreds, with colts and geldings carrying 126 pounds and fillies carrying 121 pounds. 

For 2025, the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival is scheduled to run from Wednesday, June 4, through Sunday, June 8, with Bet on the Belmont Stakes itself slated for Saturday, June 7, 2025, at the historic Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. 

As of late May 2025, early expected participants and odds are emerging, with horses like Sovereignty (8-5) and Journalism (9-5) being discussed as potential frontrunners. Journalism, having won the Preakness Stakes, could aim for the Triple Crown's final leg if he performs well in the upcoming races.

Saratoga Racetrack

Key Factors to Consider for Betting

Successful betting on the Belmont Stakes 2025 requires a meticulous approach, considering various factors influencing a horse's performance.

Past Performance Analysis

Thoroughly examine a horse's previous races, paying close attention to their finishes, speed figures, and how they handled different track conditions and distances. A horse's form in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes provides direct insight into their fitness and ability to compete against the best in their age group. 

The jockey's and trainer's track record at the Belmont Stakes, and with the specific horse, is also vital. Experienced jockeys who understand the nuances of a longer race and trainers renowned for preparing horses for Triple Crown events often have an edge.

For instance, Luis Saez, who rode Dornoch to victory in 2024, also won the Belmont in 2021 with Essential Quality, demonstrating his prowess in this particular race. 

Post Position

Historically, trainers like James G. Rowe Sr. (8 wins) and jockeys like James McLaughlin and Eddie Arcaro (6 wins each) have dominated the Belmont Stakes. However, current top trainers like Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown and jockeys like Irad Ortiz Jr. and Javier Castellano frequently contend.

While less impactful than in shorter races, post position still plays a role. Historically, Post #1 has yielded the most Belmont Stakes winners with 23 wins, followed by Post #3 and Post #5 with 13 wins. However, recent trends show a more diverse spread. Dornoch, the 2024 winner, broke from Post #6, which had historically been one of the less successful gates. 

Other Key Factors

Horses breaking from inside posts (1-3) generally have a shorter path to the first turn, which can be advantageous, especially at the Saratoga 1.25-mile distance. Outside posts might force a horse to cover more ground but offer more room to manoeuvre and avoid traffic. The post positions are determined by a random draw just days before the race, adding an element of chance to the handicapping process.

The weather forecast and track conditions are critical. Horse racing tracks are uncovered, making them susceptible to changes in weather. A "fast" track, indicative of dry conditions, generally leads to faster times. Due to rain, a "sloppy" or "muddy" track can favour horses that have demonstrated an ability to run well in such conditions. 

Some horses thrive on wet tracks, while others perform best on dry surfaces. Extreme heat can also affect a horse's stamina and ability to dissipate heat. Horse breeding provides insight into a horse's potential for distance and specific track types. Pedigree analysis can reveal whether a horse is bred for speed, stamina, or versatility, which can be a valuable indicator for Belmont's demanding distance.

Potential Frontrunners for 2025

As the 2025 Triple Crown season unfolds, a clearer picture of the Belmont Stakes contenders will emerge. Based on early performances and discussions, horses like Sovereignty and Journalism are already generating buzz. With early odds of 8-5, Sovereignty bypassed the Preakness Stakes, potentially keeping him fresh for the Belmont. 

His performance in earlier races would be crucial to analyze. On the other hand, journalism comes off a strong Preakness Stakes victory, suggesting he possesses both speed and the ability to close. His recent win demonstrates a proven ability to handle a significant race, making him a compelling candidate.

Beyond these early contenders, other horses that perform well in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes will naturally enter the conversation. Handicappers will be looking for horses with a strong closing kick, a comfortable stride, and the ability to maintain pace over a longer distance. The connections (jockeys and trainers) associated with these horses are also significant. 

Trainers like Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown consistently field competitive horses in Triple Crown races. At the same time, jockeys such as Irad Ortiz Jr., Javier Castellano, and Luis Saez have proven their ability to win on this grand stage. Their presence aboard a promising contender can significantly boost its chances.

Final Words For Betting on the Belmont Stakes 2025

Betting on the Belmont Stakes 2025 promises to be a thrilling experience. For bettors, it presents a unique opportunity to test their handicapping skills against the sport's unpredictable nature.

Thorough research, encompassing past performance, pedigree, jockey and trainer expertise, and an eye on potential track conditions, forms the bedrock of any smart betting strategy.

Identifying value bets among the field and understanding the nuances of different wager types can enhance your betting experience.