Breeders Cup Contenders 2019

Breeders' Cup Contenders 2019: Who Were the Top Picks? And How It All Played Out

The 2019 Contenders at a Glance

Code of Honor: the sophomore who stood out from a so-so crop
McKinzie: the Whitney winner and the horse everyone was talking about
Game Winner: the former two-year-old champion colt
Maximum Security: the Kentucky Derby "winner" who got disqualified
Higher Power: the older horse nobody should have written off

Why These Horses?

I didn't pick names out of a hat. Here's what I looked at:

Recent form: who was winning big races going in
Marquee wins: Grade 1 and big-stakes victories carry weight
Trainer and owner strength: Baffert and the Wests don't show up by accident
Betting appeal: a few of these were crowd favorites, and a few were value plays

Racing at Santa Anita Racetrack home of the Breeders Cup 2019

Breeders Cup Contenders 2019

Code of Honor

Most of the three-year-olds in the 2019 field didn't have especially impressive records, but Code of Honor was the exception. His record stood at 9 starts: 5 wins, 2 seconds and 1 third.

Recent form: consistent and improving
Key win: the Travers Stakes at Saratoga
Trainer and owner: Shug McGaughey and W.S. Farish
Why he was considered: a strong sophomore in a thin crop
Risk factor: he'd be up against older, more battle-tested horses

McKinzie

After a big win in the Whitney Stakes, McKinzie looked like the horse to beat. His record read 11 starts: 6 wins and 4 seconds.

Recent form: red hot after the Whitney
Key win: he started his climb with a $50,000 seven-furlong race at Santa Anita, then took the GI Los Alamitos Futurity a month later
Trainer and owner: Bob Baffert, with Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman
Why he was considered: a proven winner who just kept exceeding expectations
Risk factor: being the top pick means carrying all that pressure

Bob Baffert

Game Winner

Don't let the name fool you, because this colt earned it. He was the two-year-old champion colt the year before and went undefeated in four starts.

Recent form: his big results came the previous season, so he had something to prove again
Key win: his championship juvenile campaign
Trainer and owner: Bob Baffert again, with Gary and Mary West, who have racked up $33,276,196 in lifetime winnings
Why he was considered: pedigree, a champion's résumé and a powerhouse barn
Risk factor: a three-year-old season that hadn't matched the hype

Maximum Security

The Wests had another horse in the mix, and this one came with drama. Maximum Security won the 2019 Haskell Invitational and the Florida Derby, and he crossed the line first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby before being disqualified for interference.

Recent form: strong, and many saw him as the freshest horse in the field
Key win: the Haskell Invitational (and that Florida Derby)
Trainer and owner: Jason Servis and Gary and Mary West
Why he was considered: a revenge story, and everybody loves one of those
Risk factor: that Derby disqualification. Was it a one-off, or a sign of how he runs?

Higher Power

At four, he was one of the oldest horses in the mix, but plenty of people still liked him. He ran away with the TVG Pacific Classic and ran third in the Awesome Again (G1).

Recent form: solid, with a big Pacific Classic win
Key win: the TVG Pacific Classic
Trainer and owner: new trainer John Sadler and new owner Hronis Racing
Why he was considered: experience, with a record of 20 starts: 4 wins, 1 second and 6 thirds
Risk factor: the record isn't as flashy as some of the others, and he was a bit of a dark horse

How It Actually Played Out

Plot twist: the horse that won wasn't on anyone's shortlist here. Vino Rosso, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., took the $6 million Classic at Santa Anita by 4 1/4 lengths, going off at 9-2. McKinzie, the favorite, ran second. Higher Power came home third, and the mare Elate was fourth.

McKinzie: the closest we got to a "right pick." He ran a solid second but Vino Rosso was simply too strong late.
Higher Power: the dark horse delivered. Third place made him the best value of the group.
Code of Honor: the big disappointment. He was the second betting choice but never fired and finished seventh.
Game Winner and Maximum Security: neither shows up in the Classic's finishing order, so they weren't part of the race.

Vino Rosso also had some unfinished business. He'd been disqualified and placed second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, the final Classic tune-up, so the win was sweet revenge on Code of Honor and McKinzie. The lesson for bettors: prep-race form matters, but a horse who lost on a technicality can come back hungry.

It was also a sad night. The race was marred by a serious injury to the longshot Mongolian Groom.

The Takeaway

Every race and every horse has a story. With a $6 million Classic purse on the line, you can see why horses like Code of Honor, McKinzie and Higher Power kept chasing big wins, and why Maximum Security and Game Winner were both talked about as ones to watch going in.

In the end, McKinzie and Higher Power gave the bettors who backed them a run for their money, but it was a horse from outside this list who walked away with the trophy. That's racing for you.

FAQs

What makes a Breeders' Cup contender? Usually a mix of recent wins, top-level form, and a trainer and owner who know how to get a horse to the big stage.

How are contenders identified before the event? Mostly through prep-race results, rankings and who's getting entered. Bettors and form-readers pay close attention to all three.

Which prep races matter most? Big Grade 1 events such as the Travers, Whitney, Pacific Classic and Jockey Club Gold Cup carry a lot of weight. In 2019, the Gold Cup tune-up also turned out to be a useful clue to the eventual winner.

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