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Free Racing Tips Little Beauty for 30 Sept 2023

TODAY'S LITTLE BEAUTY

OVIEDO 3.40 Newmarket 14/1 each way – OVIEDO has a good record with handicaps, he grabbed the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar this past May and then gave us a pretty solid showing last month, coming in second to Astro King at York's Ebor gathering. There's a good chance he's got an even more impressive run up his sleeve.

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Previous Selections

TETON SIOUX 2:50 Bellewstown 10/1 each way – Was better than the result when returning from a gelding op at Leopardstown last month, keeping on well without much assistance after being outpaced from the turn.

He’ll be facing much different ground conditions (if the meeting isn’t abandoned) in fact, atrocious conditions, but he ran his first two races on heavy ground, so the suspicion could be that he’s expected to cope with plenty of give underfoot.

This is a weaker race than last time, and if finding the ground to his liking, then he should go well.

AFTERLIFE 3.05 Goodwood 16/1 – (I’m suggesting win only trying soft ground for first time and just 3 places on offer and will be recorded as such, but go each-way if you wish)

Ex-Gosden and Cowell trained gelding that ran well when having his first start for Phil McEntee at Chester last time which, considering that yard is not known for being successful with new recruits, it makes the run even more meritable.

It was also the softest ground that he’s run on so far, and if tomorrow’s even softer ground can bring out a bit more, then he could run a big race.

BRIGHT IMAGE 2.30 Cork 20/1 – Was a non-runner after being well backed for us last time due to the ground not being soft enough. He’s got his ideal ground here so we need to back him again.

This was my analysis last time for a similar quality race.

“A cheap buy so he might not be very good. But he’s a nice-looker that’s shown enough in his three races to suggest he can win races, including last time when ridden with handicaps in mind and being heavily restrained after breaking well.

He wasn’t given anything like a hard time through the race so it’s impossible to know how he’d react when put under pressure. But he looks like he might be well handicapped off an opening mark of 56, I think he could be overpriced, despite his relatively new yard not yet having a winner in 44 attempts.”

JUNGLE MAC 6.15 Kempton 8/1 – William Buick rode a four-timer for Godolphin and has a strong book of rides at the Surrey venue. After three rides for Appleby, he is booked for Jungle Mac and has another solid chance. He was third in a Salisbury novice last time out, beaten 3 ¾ lengths but the front three pulled clear of the pack and the runner-up won next time out.

The son of Bungle Inthejungle looked uncomfortable on the good-to-firm ground, and it could be a good call switching to a more forgiving surface on Polytrack.

LIKEASHADOW 6.30 Newcastle 11/1 each way – One I think may have been under-estimated by the handicapper is Likeashadow for Alan Brown. The gelding has earned his rating in three novice events at Haydock, Redcar and Thirsk over 6f/7f. He failed to trouble the judge on all three occasions but ran better than the bare form.

Last time out she showed up for a long way at Thirsk before fading close home when eased down to be beaten 8½ lengths. Likeashadow might have slipped under the radar here and can be competitive on an opening mark of 57 and he looks a value bet.

MALAGO ROSE 5.35 Worcester 8/1 each way – After some promising performances in 2m maiden hurdles at this track, MALAGO ROSE is shaping up to be a horse to watch as she transitions into handicap races.

SIGNIFICANTLY 2.25 Doncaster 14/1 each way – Has some strong form to his name in his days with Karl Burke, and has been running well now with the Julie Camacho team with form figures of 4126, with the last of those when running well int he Stewards Dup on heavy ground over 6f.

The application of the cheek-pieces looks to have brought about a little extra, and fresh from a small break (yard doing well this year after this type of break) with the cheek-pieces reapplied, I think he can go well.

MISEMERALD 1.50 Doncaster 33/1 each way – Was running well winning 2 of her 4 starts, before finishing well down the field in a warm York nursey last time. But she travelled well to a point before being passed by several rivals late on after racing a tad keen.

That was on quick ground, though her best form so far has come on ground with some give, and if this softer ground isn’t a hindrance, the drop to 6.5f against her own sex could see her run into a place.

AL HARGAH 4:35 Leicester 10/1 – Narrow win by a neck on last outing at Newbury over the same distance. Ground should suit here today and only Love You Grandpa feared most.

SIDNEY'S SON 3:20 Newcastle 5/1 – A win by half a length last time out at Carlisle a few weeks ago and improved on previous respectable second at Redcar a few weeks prior to that.

Second here in a handicap back in May and should go well today.

PARKERS PIECE 5:45 Wolverhampton 14/1 Each Way – Had two decent pieces of all-weather form to his name before disappointing over 7f in a better race at Newmarket last time. Back over 6f, with a handy draw back on the all-weather, he looks a good each-way play.

BLACK JACK DAVEY 6:00 Kempton 10/1 – Has caught the eye to some degree in each of his three races to date which have all been on turf, including last time from a poor draw at Lingfield in a race run at a good tempo to produce a very good time-figure.

He’s up to 6f for the first time tomorrow which given the way he’s been finishing his races, along with his breeding, should suit, and being a half-brother to two all-weather winners, despite running off top weight, in a race that looks to lack much quality, I think he might be worth risking on his all-weather debut.

PUNCHBOWL FLYER 5.05 Goodwood 20/1 each way – John O'Shea has a good track record at Goodwood, boasting a 33% win rate with limited runners over the last four years. Punchbowl Flyer recently joined his stable and appears promising.

Known for excelling at 6F, the horse has had seven wins and a high postmark of 108. Although he hasn't won at Goodwood yet, he performed respectably in the challenging Stewards Cup, and his wins at undulating tracks like Brighton and Chepstow are promising. The track conditions of ‘good to soft, soft in places' suit him well. Just 16 days ago, he made a strong seasonal return after a long hiatus.

His current handicap mark is down to 84, which seems generous given his past performance. Charles Bishop, who has won seven times with him, will be the jockey. Punchbowl Flyer has shown he can win higher-class races than the upcoming Class 4, so he stands a good chance of a strong performance.

SINGE ANGLAIS 4.02 Roscommon 17/2 each way – SINGE ANGLAIS has been mostly impressive since joining his current stable, despite some slow starts off the gate. Switching from a visor to cheekpieces might give him the edge he needs. Given he's racing from the lowest mark of his career, he's a gamble that could well pay off.

TASAYAD 5:10 Navan 10/1 each way – A non-runner when smashed in the betting the last time I had him. He’s down in grade and trip for this apprentice handicap, so need to back him again

PLUMETTE 7.30 Wolverhampton 7/1 each way – PLUMETTE knows how to win at this course, and she's been doing pretty well since teaming up with Steph Hollinshead.

Last time out, she tried her hooves at a sprint race at Newmarket and managed a respectable fourth. Given her strong performances on artificial surfaces earlier this year, and returning to a distance that suits her better, she's looking like a solid bet.

Previous Selections

SNASH 7.15 Newcastle 15/2 each way – Last season SNASH won a couple of fair 6F sprints, looked progressive, and the type that might go on to win one of the big Saturday sprints, but this year he has underperformed, and his mark has dropped from a high 98 to just 73. He ran a little better last time out, and he now goes onto the all-weather where he has only raced twice, winning both times, the last off 94. With David Allan on board and him looking so well handicapped, he gets the vote.

PINK SKY AT NIGHT 4:45 Catterick 12/1 each way – Ran some good races over in Ireland, and she ran quite well on the front end for over a mile of a 1m 2f trip on her return from a long break, racing a bit keen on her first start for her new yard.

She was carrying a lot of weight that day in an amateur jockey’s handicap, and down in trip under a much lighter weight, in what looks an awful quality race, with that run under her belt she’s entitled to go well.

SHE WORE NO JEWELS 2.30 Newbury 20/1 each way – She caught the eye on her debut when third at Goodwood beaten 5½ lengths. The winner was different gravy on that occasion, but there was only ½ lengths between the placed horses and the runner-up has won twice since and likely to be rated in the 80’s when re-assessed. She Wore No Jewels flopped next time out when favourite at Doncaster but showed more encouragement last time out at Salisbury. Again, the winner was in a different league, but the daughter of Ten Sovereigns stayed on to be fourth despite fluffing the start, the only runner to stay on from off the pace, and an opening mark of 66 is potentially well-treated.

BREAKING THE ICE 1.50 Cartmel 15/2 each way – BREAKING THE ICE is down 3lbs in the handicap after a promising return to the track at the end of June. Given the slight drop in weight, he's well-positioned to claim his seventh chase victory.

FOX JOURNEY 2.25 York 14/1 each way – Has been consistent all year now he’s stepped up to staying trips and has never looked stronger than at the end of his races.

won in a good time at Newbury on his penultimate outing (had ‘Cavern Club’ behind who won today at Newmarket) staying on strongly at the finish, and although trounced by 15L at Goodwood last time, that was a strongly run race on very testing ground and was one of only 3 runners in the field to see the race out well.

He’s up to 1m 6f back on good ground, and is a half-brother to 2m Kevin Ryan trained winner here yesterday ‘Forza Orta’ who’s improved the further he’s run. Will Buikck gets the ride and from a nice draw in stall 4 he looks set to go well.

CHELSEA GREEN 4.10 York 16/1 each way – Looking to regain her reputation is Chelsea Green in the fillies handicap. She ran well in a listed race last time out on her first attempt beyond a mile.

After winning at Newmarket on her seasonal bow, she was then well held in the Sandringham from a poor draw at Royal Ascot. She looks to have been under-estimated here.

STAR OF MYSTERY 1.50 York 13/2 each way – Very impressive when winning in a good time at Newmarket. She failed to follow that up last time in a small field group 2 on easy ground which was far from ideal given her pacey nature. She’s full of speed so the much quicker ground and track at York should suit, and if the first-time tongue-tie helps, then she could have ideal conditions to return to form and hopefully win.

EQUILATERAL 1.50 York 9/1 each way – He’s not won a race since February 2021. But he’s been a consistent performer from Listed level, right up to group 1 status, including when 5th in the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot only in June. He disappointed in a group 2 at Goodwood last time, but he raced on unsuitably easy ground that day, plus being made to race wide without any cover won’t have helped.

He’s only raced here twice and should arguably have won on his last visit, and what’s remarkable about this third visit is he’s racing in just his second handicap after 37 races, and having won his only drop into this grade in Meydan in 2021, it makes he’s unbeaten in handicaps. Jamie Spencer gets the ride, and from what looks a good draw in stall 12 and with ideal underfoot conditions, if getting the run of the race then I think this 8-year-old should still have enough fuel in his tank to win a race like this.

HUMTAZA 8.15 Roscommon 14/1 each way – HUMTAZA appeared to run out of petrol upped to 13f on her handicap debut at Down Royal last month and, back down in trip slightly here off a 3lb lower mark, this lightly-raced filly could be the answer.

BBOB ALULA 3.50 Brighton 14/1 each way – BBOB ALULA, with his winning experience at this course, is set up with an appealing weight. Those blinkers being back on might just do the trick for him today.

SCHOLARSHIP 3.00 Newbury 14/1 each way – I’m going to take a chance that easier ground will bring about improvement for Scholarship in the seven-furlong handicap.

Clive Cox’s gelding won well over CD on seasonal debut in a similar event and is only 1lb higher now after two poor efforts on quicker ground. Scholarship has a sound each-way chance and with four places on offer, he looks worth a play.

COME ON JOHN 3.35 Epsom 9/1 each way – COME ON JOHN notched two victories in May, impressing at both Wolverhampton and Brighton. A recent stumble in performance at Sandown seems out of character, but with his headgear back in place, he's primed to rebound.

CLANDESTINELY 3:05 Bath 10/1 each way – Ex-Andrew Balding filly that’s now with the Adrian Wintle yard. She ran Ok on stable debut at Chepstow last month before being given an easy time from her jockey over this C&D last time.

The time of that race was far from special, but she just looked like she might have had plenty more to give, and back for this weak classified event for a trainer with an outstanding record at the track (W23/R101 23% s/r) she can’t go unbacked.

SEA THE BUCKTHORN 7:30 Wolverhampton 12/1 each way – Ran quite well despite only finishing 10th of 12 on his return when having his first start for the Mark Usher team last time, as he raced keenly in the rear, but still looked to have more left to give under an easy ride late on.

His best form for Kevin Foy was on the all-weather last year, and with David Probert, who rode him on both those runs, returning to ride him in this fairly weak looking maiden handicap, I think he could be overpriced, especially if the hood helps him settle better.

MULLINS BEACH 6.20 Windsor 33/1 each way – It’s a shame that there is a maximum of six runners for the Nursery that opens the card as I think Mullins Beach might be over-priced and three or four places would have been appealing.

The Haydock Nursery that most of this raced in looks to hold the key, but Mullins Beach was last of the 9 and he could be under-estimated here with easier conditions likely to suit.

Je Ne Sais Quoi is the most likely winner but likely to be over bet. Matters Most could benefit from being the sole runner with different lines of form but doesn’t look to be particularly well-treated. But I don’t want to leave it unbacked at such a big price, so I suggest halving stakes.

WAVERING DOWN 2:05 Market Rasen 9/1 – We've always kept one eye on Appreciate but Wavering Down catches our eye today. Just lost out last time to a very good winner and should go one better and land the Little Beauty for us.

THERAPIST 7:30 Newmarket 10/1 Each Way – Up in class and progressing through the ratings nicely. Course & distance win under his belt at the start of the month and should repeat that here today.

FLIP MODE 2:30 Chepstow 20/1 Each Way

LOUGH CARRA 4.40 Uttoxeter 10/1 each way – LOUGH CARRA is an enormous horse and the old adage whatever he does over hurdles is a bonus certainly applies to this fella. He is only six and has needed time to fill his frame and will only now be mature enough to do himself justice. His hurdles form has been solid, but his future lay over chases and has looked good in his three chases to date (making them look like hurdles!) but has been outpaced at the end of his 2m 4F races and looks in need of a step up in trip. He goes over 3 miles for the first time today and has the excellent Sean Quinlan on board, sao I like his chances off a fair-looking handicap mark of 88.

SOMMERVIEU 5.35 Southwell 40/1 each way – Nick Kent, who has a solid 10% strike rate and a track record of getting high-priced winners, is known for performing well with horses in their first or second run of the season. This brings Sommervieu into consideration. Sommervieu, previously from France, was moved to the UK with a mark of 120 but failed to meet expectations.

After success in 3-mile point-to-point races and overcoming a 3-year injury, he returned for three runs to regain fitness earlier this year. He's currently owned by a point-to-point yard but has been transferred to Kent.

The horse seemed comfortable in his debut under Kent's guidance, despite being outpaced. Now, after at least six months of training and four runs, he appears fit and ready. The application of a visor, used in his past successful runs, is also seen as a positive. With Peter Armson's 3lb claim, Sommervieu's mark is 81, suggesting he's well-handicapped.

ASADJUMEIRAH 8.30 Wolverhampton 13/2 each way – Although ASADJUMEIRAH brings along the risk of extending his losing streak or a missed start, his form seems to be reviving, with his recent performance just falling short to an emerging 3-year-old.MOTTISFONT 2.15 Newmarket 11/1 each way – The last day of the July meeting at Newmarket and I’m surprised that the Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap is not on ITV. It’s easy to see why Desert Voice is popular with punters, she is looking to land a hat-trick, she only won a class 5 last time out, but William Haggas does so well with progressive horses.

Conversely, Candle Of Hope is coming off the back of a good effort in a better race at Ascot. If the going was to ease if might not suit (she has been withdrawn when the ground is soft in the past).

Mottisfont wasn’t far behind her at Ascot and is set to re-oppose on officially better terms (although Ryan Moore takes over on Candle Of Hope). Mottisfont would be suited by any further give in the ground.

MILLION THANKS 2.15 Ascot 7/1 each way – Despite that elusive win in 2023 after a change of stables, MILLION THANKS made a close-to-career-best performance without a tongue tie, placing second in a field of six at Yarmouth last month.

The return to a 1-mile track should be more to his liking after falling short over 1¼ miles on his last run. The refitted cheekpieces should make him a respectable contender.

EXECUTIVE DECISION 3.00 Newmarket 20/1 each way – A tricky first day at Newmarket for the July Meeting, but I put EXECUTIVE DECISION in the notebook when she made a good start to life at the Jamie Osborne yard with a decent fifth in the Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot.

She looks to be on a fair mark on her Irish form and connections maybe lucky she has been dropped 2lbs. Executive Decision should appreciate the return to six furlongs and certainly won’t mind any softening in the ground.

She might struggle to confirm the Ascot places with Frankness, who was a place ½ length behind her, but was unlucky in running, but Executive Decision is four times the price and has solid each-way claims.

PRIMO UOMO'S 1.55 Dundalk 7/1 each way - Although PRIMO UOMO'S recent turf outings post-break haven't caused a stir, it's his strong track record here that catches attention. Coupled with a manageable mark, this experienced veteran could find this stage set for a bold showing.

BILLY NO MATES 4.30 Pontefract 7/1 each way – After a challenging start in his latest run at York, BILLY NO MATES is back in a more suitable grade, now even more appealing having received a 2 lb concession in weights.

THE DALEY EXPRESS 7.35 Chepstow 7/1 each way – THE DALEY EXPRESS looked back in form when third at Bath last time and, in a weaker contest, he could be ready to capitalise on a reduced mark.

MINNESOTA LAD 1:30 Haydock 9/1 each way – Decent form last year, he’s had just the two starts this year, and after probably needing his first run at Chester on soft ground, he ran a better race at Epsom last time even though he found the track too quick and jumped the path after 2f and stumbled quite badly.

He should be spot on after those two runs, and back down in grade at a track which suit better, I think he can go well.

WAITING ALL NIGHT 7.50 Haydock 10/1 each way – At Haydock, Waiting All Night drops back to seven furlongs after appearing to find a mile stretching his stamina at Nottingham last time out.

Prior to that, he was beaten just over four lengths in a competitive handicap at York off a mark of 86 and lines up for this next assignment off 5lbs lower.

Thee form of Richard Spencer is a concern as he is now 55 days without a winner, but Waiting All Night should break that run.

JIMMY SPEAKING 3.00 Yarmouth 14/1 each way – I’m interested in Jimmy Speaking after he went into the notebook on debut over CD. He may have finished fifth at 80/1, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Slowly away, he was then too keen but was only beaten 4¼ lengths despite his saddle slipping. The winner ran well at Royal Ascot, the runner-up won next time out and the third State Of Desire was only beaten by a Godolphin stablemate at Haydock.

The big question mark is if Jimmy Speaking can handle softer ground after running well on fast ground, but the price is too tempting.

GOOD MORNING ALEX 2:15 Thirsk 28/1 each way – Showed greenness on debut, having blown the start and then wandering all over the track before possibly (hard to tell how much had left as went out of shot) having more left to give.

David Barron his trainer has a fantastic record with his 2yo’s improving between debut and second runs, which jumps from a 5% s/r (6/122) right up to a 20% s/r (18/90) (although not quite as good with 2yo’s since partnering up with Daughter Nicola) and if this fella can improve for that debut run on ground which will be quicker, then I think he can figure in this race.

BASILAH BEAR 4:45 Roscommon 12/1 each way – Profit Refused who went close behind a subsequent Royal Ascot winner last time should take all the beating. But she’s just a little skinny for me, so a I’m going to back filly at much bigger odds and one who quietly caught the eye on her debut run.

Basilah Bear is trained by a yard that doesn’t have many 2yo winners, but also doesn’t have many 2yo runners, and the 5 that have run for him so far this year, have all run well at nice odds. BB was keeping on nicely on debut under an easy ride, and if she can improve for the experience, then I can see her running in to a place.