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For followers of Cheltenham Gold Cup trends the 2016 renewal appears a wide open race, with several of the likely participants already having achieved high rank in the chasing hierarchy.
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Let me start by listing the 10 most influential trends:
1. The last 53 winners were aged 10 or younger
2. A Grade 1 chase had previously been won by the last 15 winners
3. 14 of the last 15 winners ran in that seasons King George VI or Lexus Chase
4. 13 of the last 14 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
5. 14 of the last 16 winners had already won that season
6. An official rating of 166+ had been achieved by 12 of the last 14 winners
7. 12 of the last 14 winners finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
8. A win or 2nd place at the Festival had been achieved by 11 of the last 14 winners
9. 9 of the last 13 winners had not had a run in the same calendar year
10. 9 of the last 15 winners had their first races in Irish Points
Although the final declarations have yet to be made we can assess some of the more likely candidates.
Trends figures are as known at 13 Jan. 2016 e.g. OR (6) and current price (4)
Don Cossack – trends 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 10
Good overall trends but of slight concern is that he fell in the King George and also once at the Cheltenham Festival where he has not finished in the first 2.
Vautour – 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Fair trends including a good 2nd in the King George VI and a previous win at the Festival.
Cue Card – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Almost a full house of trends and has an excellent chance of winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup trends wise.
Djakadam – 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Currently 7/2 favourite after a very convincing win by 12 lengths in the John Durkan Chase at Punchestown. Owned by top Irish trainer Willie Mullins, this horse represents his trainer’s best chance yet of carrying off the Blue Riband prize.
Don Poli - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
A strong set of trends and another string to Willie Mullins’ bow; he won this season’s renewal of the Lexus Chase.
In summary I think it likely that Cue Card will get the better of Djakadam with Don Poli not far away in 3rd.
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