A guide to Royal Ascot week with analysis and tips for this prestigious event
Royal Ascot Racecourse
Tip of the meeting: Back 3yo's in Group 1 races whose prices shorten 2 percentage points on the day of their race.
14:30, Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (Str)
Four year olds at the head of the market are the way to go here and preference is given to previous Lockinge Stakes runners.Concentrate on the first 4 in the betting currently: Goldikova 7/4 Rip Van Winkle 5/2 4y0 Paco Boy 3/1 winner of Lockinge Stakes 2010 Dalghar 14/1 Although Goldikova boasts the best form with 8 Group 1's to her name and has the filly's weight allowance no filly or mare has won this since 1971. Paco Boy won this last year but is now a 5yo and the only 4yo is Rip Van Winkle who certainly has the class to win this if fit enough. Selection: Rip Van Winkle 15:05, King's Stand Stakes (Group 1)
Favourites have a job to get their heads in front here which puts a dampener on current favourite Nicconi's chances but that's not to say the winner is not top class, as a big percentage of winners have won a Group 1 or Group 2 race. International raiders, Nicconi and Starspangledbanner also have a good record (won 6 of last 7 renewals)and both have won group 1's in Australia. As also have those filling the top four places in the Prix Du Gros-Chene, although none contest this year's race. Nicconi, the mount of Frankie Dettori will appreciate the drop to 5f Kingsgate Native, now gelded won a hot Temple stakes at Haydock and has the beating on that run of Equiano, Borderlescott, Spin cycle and Total Gallery. Fleeting Spirit has his first outing of the season in this race - the same as last year when 2nd to Scenic Blast. Selection: Kingsgate Native 15:50 St James's Palace Stakes (Group 1) We are looking for a horse with single figure odds, trained by Aidan O'Brien who has won a Group 1 race.... Steinbeck is his representative and is open to progress but has not won a Group 1 race and was 4th to Canford Cliffs last time out. Canford Cliffs 7/4 Makfi 11/4 Siyouni 5/1 Steinbeck 11/2 Dick Turpin 9/1 Canford Cliffs has won 50% of his races but Makfi is undefeatedThe American raider Noble's Promise is interesting and could be the dark horse. Selection: Makfi 16:25 Coventry Stakes (Group 2) Aidan O'Brien and Paul Cole have a good record in this Royal Ascot race, the former winning 5 of the last 11 renewals. A horse that won its sole start has often gone on to win this. The winner is usually found in the first four in the betting currently: Strong Suit 11/4 - won sole start Samuel Morse 4/1 - Aidan O'Brien Zoffany 9/2 Elzaam 9/1 - won sole start Richard Hannon's Strong Suit won his maiden at Newbury in taking fashion; a result since boosted by the runner up Nebraas. Selection: Strong Suit 17:00 Ascot Stakes (Handicap) A 4yo or 5yo carrying over 9st and who was placed in the Chester Cup is an ideal candidate for this ultimate test of stamina. While Martin Pipe enjoyed great success here there is no reason why his son David cannot maintain the tradition. David Pipe runs Junior who won his last Chase outing over 3m and the good ground will suit. Elyaadi ran well to win a 1m6f flat race at Leopardstown on good to firm and is likely to be in the mix. Selection: Elyaadi each way 17:35 Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) Although not a strong Royal Ascot race for trends followers, 22 of the last 23 winners came from the first 6 in the betting. Metropolitan Man 2/1 Oor Jock 9/2 - Irish Chilworth Lad 8/1 - M. Channon Marine Commando 8/1 Stone Of Folca 10/1 - J. Best Boundless Spirit 12/1 Although it should be noted the Irish do not have a good record. Trainers to follow are: M. Channon, J. Osborne, J. Best, B. Hills Suits fillies and debutants - expect some decent prices John Best's Stone Of Folca was 2nd in a warm race at Windsor and will come on for that experience. Marine Commando also commands respect. Selection: Stone Of Folca
Royal Ascot 2009 Day 2 analysis: 14:30 Jersey Stakes A good guide is the King Charles II stakes at Newmarket for horses that finished 1st or 2nd - won by Field Of Dream with Red Jazz runner up. Last time out winners have won 50% of the last 12 renewals Shakespearean Field Of Dream (looks too big a price at 14-1) Of the trainers M. Stoute, R. Hannon and J Noseda have done best Lucky General - R. Hannon Selection: Field Of Dream - each way 15:05 Royal Ascot Windsor Forest Stakes Not much in the way of stats to work on but Sir Michael Stoute has twice won this. He does very well with older fillies and runs Strawberrydaiquiri and Golden Stream. Respect French horses and concentrate on the 1st 2 in the betting Sahpresa - French Strawberrydaiquiri 7/2 Antara 7/2 Spacious won this last year and will give her running although this is more competitive. Sahpresa is group class but must carry more weight than the rest Shamwari Lodge is on the upgrade and a winner in Ireland last time while the German filly Antara impressed at Epsom last week. Selection: Strawberrydaiquiri
15:50 Royal Ascot Prince Of Wales's Stakes Some very high class horses have won this; Dubai Millennium, Fantastic Light, Grandera, Nayef, Rakti, Azamour, Ouija Board, Manduro and Duke Of Marmalade Since 2000 every winner has won a Group 1 race - Group 1 winners running this year: Twice Over 9/2 2nd in betting Wiener Walzer Shalanaya Presvis 9/1 4th in betting Cavalryman Winner is most often found in the first 4 in the betting and was a last time out winner Must have proven stamina beyond 1m Trainer; Saeed Bin Suroor runs Cavalryman 12/1 A competitive renewal with few standout horses. Henry Cecil runs Twice Over although Mawatheeq could reverse last year's Champion Stakes form. Presvis also rates a danger. Godolphin's silks will be carried by Cavalryman, 3rd in the Arc last year and Allybar, Dubai World Cup 3rd. France sends Byword, 2nd to Goldikova in the Prix d'Ispahan and Shalanaya, 2nd in the Ganay after an exceptional run in the Prix de l'Opera at Longchamp. Selection: Twice Over win - Presvis place 16:20 Royal Hunt Cup Handicap 4yo or 5yo's carrying no more than 9st rule the roost here and previous track form is a bonus. The Irish horse and Victoria Cup winner, Dandy Boy is a worthy favourite and still unexposed despite a 5lb hike in the weights.Although the last time Ireland won this was the year England won the football World Cup. Last year's winner Forgotten Voice and Britannia winner Fareer are class horses with big chances now they have their optimum conditions. Riggins, Axiom and Acrostic should be in the mix. Trainers to note: J. Fanshawe, C Cox - no runners I fancy the chances of Mull Of Killough as a lighlty raced 4yo carrying a light weight and with scope for further improvement. Selection: Mull Of Killough each way 17:00 Royal Ascot Queen Mary Stakes Unbeaten last time out winners hold most of the cards here and we are looking for a filly with plenty of speed in her Sire's profile. The style with which John Gosden's Maqaasid won her debut maiden at Sandown suggests she is destined to far. Others to consider are Swiss Dream, Penny's Pearl, The Sydney Arms and Crying Lightening. The Irish fillies Meow, Moonlit Garden and Purple Glow should not be lightly dismissed. Mick Channon and Richard Hannon do well in this race. Penny's Pearl, The Sydney Arms - Richard Hannon Selection: Maqaasid win - Penny's Pearl each way 17:30 Sandringham Handicap A rating of 90+ and in the first 6 in the betting will capture our winning filly. Safina 9/2 Timepiece 7/1 Pollenator 8/1 Za Za Zoom 10/1 Miss Zooter 10/1 rating of only 88 Lolly For Dolly 14/1 Ten of the last 12 winners had won earlier in the season and 8 of them last time out. Lolly For Dolly Safina - won last time out Timepiece's performance in the Oaks was less than inspiring but if Henry Cecil's filly puts her best foot forward in this handicap she is a threat to all. Pollenator is a Group winner while Sir Michael Stoute's Safina is on an attractive mark. Selection: Safina win - Lolly For Dolly each way
Royal Ascot 2009 Day 3 analysis: 14:30 Norfolk Stakes A last time out winner is a strong stat and 10 of the last winners were undefeated Al Aasifh Black Moth Dinkum Diamond - 5f only Emperor Hadrian Excel Bolt - 5f only Little Lion Man - Peter Chapple-Hyam - 5f only Reckless Reward - Richard Hannon - 5f only Zebedee - Richard Hannon - 5f only Fillies have a good record - none Mark Johnston, Richard Hannon, Peter Chapple-Hyam and Howard Johnson have a good record in this race Those who have raced solely at 5f also have a fine record The favourite or second favourite have won the past 5 renewals Dinkum Diamond 7/2 Zebedee 7/2 Excel Bolt 6/1 The 2nd best juvenile on RPR's is Dinkum Diamond along with Excel Bolt. Richard Hannon's best hope is C&D winner Zebedee. Selection: Dinkum Diamond 15:05 Royal Ascot Ribblesdale Stakes Be wary of horses that run at Epsom such as Gertrude Bell, Bikini Babe, Cabaret and Awe Inspiring as they have a poor record here. Instead focus on the likes of Henry Cecil's Principal Role who has been aimed at this race, M. Tregoning's Fatanah who has been working well at home and Godolphin's Hibaayib. Listed winners are also well represented in the winners enclosure 9 out 10 finished in the first 3 last time out 7 out of 10 have won over at least 1m 2f Principal Role Fatanah Gertrude Bell Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and John Gosden Hibaayib - Saeed Bin Suroor Gertrude Bell - John Gosden Hibaayib boasts the best form but has yet to win at 1m 2f so his stamina could be stretched. Of the two market leaders who have won at 1m 2f Principal Role and Gertrude Bell, the former is preferred. Selection: Principal Role 15:45 Royal Ascot Gold Cup Group 1 form over middle distances is a strong stat Ask 4yo to 6yo have won the last 14 Royal Ascot renewals Won earlier in the season and contested the Henry II stakes or the Yorkshire Cup Yeats has been a standing dish here for some years and now retired it will be a rare horse to take on his mantle. Nonetheless this renewal boasts plenty of class, none more so than Ask who won the 2m Prix Poyal-Oak and not beaten far in an Arc and King George. Others to consider are long time ante-post favourite Manifest from the resurgent stable of Henry Cecil, winner of 4 consecutive Gold Cups, Kite Wood, Age Of Aquarius and Kasbah Bliss. Ask is the only contestant to have won a Group 1 but has not won on ground firmer than good. The stats also suggest that age is against him. Of the rest Manifest has the strongest claims and gets the nod. Selection: Manifest 16:25 Royal Ascot Britannia Stakes Heritage Handicap Finishing in the 1st 4 last time out is a prerequisite 9st is as much as a winner will wish to carry Last time out maidens are a no-no Lightly raced runner in the first 6 in the betting Ransom Note 10/1 Balducci 10/1 Business As Usual 10/1 Hypnotized 10/1 Sea Lord 11/1 Dherghaam 11/1 Trainers to note: John Gosden or James Fanshawe There are few unexposed runners in this nowadays. Balducci and Al Farahidi are good starting points, finishing 1,2 in a hot Haydock 1m while Business As Usual and Ransom Note 1st and 2nd in a similar race at Newmarket have equal claims. Layline who has been saved for this could be the dark horse. Hypnotized showed a good turn of foot in a recent close 2nd at Goodwood, is lightly raced and open to improvement. Selection: Hypnotized - each way 17.00 Royal Ascot Hampton Court Stakes Mainly contested by progressive 3yo's Focus on horses beaten in a Group or Listed race last time out French trained runners This is not a race in which Michael Stoute excels Fair Trade who missed the Guineas with a skin rash has class but Afsare an impressive winner at Doncaster could be the one. Selection: Afsare
17:35 Royal Ascot King George V Heritage Handicap Look for a lightly raced horse who won or was placed last time out Odds between 7-1 and 14-1 Berling 7/1 Dandino 7/1 Tactician 11/1 Bright Horizon 12/1 Contract Caterer 14/1 Bay Willow 14/1 Not a great race for favourites Berling who lost a lot of ground by veering across the track in the same Newbury race in which Arctic Cosmos was 3rd has possibilities. Michael Stoute runs London Stripe while Mark Johnston is represented by easy Leicester winner Bay Willow. Selection: Berling win - Bay Willow each way
14:30 Albany Stakes With only 6 renewals of this race there is not a great deal to go on although a few stats are beginning to emerge. A Racing Post Rating of 100+ is a must which immediately reduces the field Horses that won their maidens last time out and with only one start have won at least half the contests. While trainers Jeremy Noseda and Mick Channon have won 2 each. Jim Bolger won this in 2008 with Cuis Ghaire and runs another likely sort in Radharcnafarraige who won well recently at Naas. The Hannon stable fields Memory an impresive winner at Goodwood and M. Bell, dual winner Margot Did. Others to consider are Stylish, Al Sharod and Hooray. The horses who tick all the stats boxes except for trainer are Memory 6/1 Wave Of Applause 10/1 Hooray 8/1 Selection: Hooray
15:05 King Edward VII Stakes A punter friendly race in that 12 of the last 14 winners started favourite or second favourite. Ran in one of the Derby trials Still aspiring to win a Group race M. Stoute has a good record Yet to win over 1m 4f At First Sight, runner up to Workforce in the Derby and Green Moon, progressive winner of a Listed event last time are the first 2 in the betting. There is a slight suspicion that the former was gifted an easy lead in the Derby and the progressive Green Moon is given the nod. Selection: Green Moon 15:50 Royal Ascot Coronation Stakes The Newmarket 1000 Guineas and the Irish equivalent at the Curragh are good pointers in this race Favourites also have a good record Henry Cecil's Jaqueline Quest will be seeking revenge having been disqualified for drifting across the track in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. But I fancy Anna Salai, mount of Frankie Dettori, defeated a nose in the Irish 1000 Guineas and could have more to offer. 16:25 Royal Ascot Wolferton Handicap Stakes Lightly raced improvers are the ones to latch on to here and look for horses that made the frame last time out Winner could well come in at a big price - recent winning odds 12-1, 16-1, 25-1 Trainers: John Gosden, Mark Johnston and Ed Dunlop Albaquaa a reliable handicapper who made the frame in Zetland Gold Cup and Fiery Lad, mount of Kieren Fallon, who won at Epsom two weeks ago could well be in the frame. Selection: Fiery Lad each way 17:00 Royal Ascot Queen's Vase Stamina is well to the fore here in this 2m race. Several winners were unraced as 2yo. Mark Johnston has won 5 of the last 9 renewals Sir Michael Stoute and Godolphin are also up there. The last 6 winners were all beaten last time out. First 4 in the betting Mikhail Glinka 11/4 Corsica 10/3 Icon Dream 10/1 Total Command 7/1 Corsica Mark Johnston's charge ran a blinder to finish 3rd under top weight conceding a stone to his rivals in a class 2 race over 1m 4f last time. He can step up in distance to take this. Selection: Corsica 17:30 Royal Ascot Buckingham Palace Stakes Big price outsiders from smaller stables have won this in recent years Trainers John Dunlop and James Fanshawe Bangalore Gold will be popular after a convincing win at the Curragh last time Prescription and Treadwell are also likely to run well although the latter has the stat of no previous 3yo winner of this race to overcome. Himalya, the mount of Ryan Moore has a decent chance after a closing 2nd in a Newmarket class 2 6f last time. Selection: Himalya each way
14:30 Royal Ascot Chesham Stakes Once raced winners do well and focus on the first 3 in the betting currently: Jackaroo 11/4 King Torus 5/1 Zaidan Fillies fare well and horses trained by Mark Johnston or John Gosden Selection: King Torus 15:05 Hardwicke Stakes A large number of winners ran in the Coronation cup and 11 of the last 13 winners have won a Group 2 or 3 race. Stamina is important and a win at 1m4f helps.
Trainers: Mark Johnston, Sir Michael Stoute or Saeed Bin Suroor Sir Michael Stoute's Harbinger is the class horse having won 2 Group 3's. Alainmaar can chase him home Selection: Harbinger 15:45 Golden Jubilee Stakes A win at 6f is obligatory 3yo's don't win this Course experience is very helpful 1st or 2nd in Duke of York Stakes won a Group or Listed race Prime Defender won the Duke of York Stakes with the advantage of race fitness and could struggle on a course that does not suit him. The runner up Showcasing was running on well at the end and could improve to take this. Selection: Showcasing 16:25 Royal Ascot Wokingham Stakes 4yo and 5yo's do best in this Finished in the first 4 last time out Carrying 8st 13lbs or more Lightly raced this season Contested the Victoria Cup Redford and Ingleby Lady fit the stats and the former gets the nod. Selection: Redford 17:00 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes 9 of the last 11 winners carried 9st+ 4yo and 5yo's dominate A last time out winner is a plus Michael Stoute has a good record here and runs Imposing who could improve for this step up in trip. Selection: Imposing 17:35 Queen Alexandra Stakes This race is a fair trek by any flat standards and stamina will be at a premium. Those at the head of the market have the best chance No winner older than 6 since 1990 Concentrate on horses that have contested Group or Listed races Aajel looks a likely sort following his 2nd in a Group 3 here in April. Selection: Aajel
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