A guide to the Grand National

Early pointers to the Grand National:

Ballyholland sneeking into National picture

Assessing the National market principals

One month prior to the John Smith's Grand National it looks as though the bookies have got things just about right with Tricky Trickster and Big Fella Thanks as the Grand National Entries sharing favouritism with most firms, although Niche Market is also seen as a potential market leader, writes Elliot Slater.

All three have run fine recent Grand National trials and have genuine claims on the prize, whilst the leading Irish runners in the ante-post market, Vic Venturi, Black Apalachi and Backstage, also have solid form that entitles them to serious consideration.

Outside of the front rank in the betting list, there has been interesting support for Arbor Supreme (25/1), while the winners of the last two renewals of the Aintree marathon Comply Or Die (2008) and Mon Mome (2009) are solid in the market at 25/1.

There could potentially be market moves for Character Building and The Package, both available at current odds of 33/1, the pair (like so many other Aintree entrants) being set to contest hot handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival before moving on to the Grand National.

Amongst those quoted at 50/1, Cloudy Lane looks to have a good racing weight and showed plenty of spark at Doncaster recently. The McCain's know better than anyone else how to prepare a horse for the unique challenge of Aintree and I would not be in the least bit surprised if there wasn't solid popular support in the run up to the race for the consistent 10-year-old that see his odds significantly reduced .

The possibility of 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner War Of Attrition is an added factor in what is shaping up to be a tremendous renewal, even though connections initially ruled out the 20/1 shot after being disappointed with his weight allocation but have since indicated he might yet take his chance..

All in all, the world's greatest steeplechase promises to be its usual spectacular self once again on April 10 with plenty of class performers and intriguing outsiders to choose from before Grand National Start time

The jury is still out on whether AP McCoy is the best jockey to ride Denman in the Gold Cup after his surprise defeat in the Aon Chaseat Newbury last weekend.

What is of more interest from a punters point of view is whether the winner of that race, Trick Trickster or the runner up Niche Market, stands a better chance of winning the Grand National in April.

Both are headed for that race and Tricky Trickster is now the market leader but it will depend on how the handicapper reacts to this performance

On the face of it Niche Market looks more of a National horse as Tricky Tricksters' age will count against him. No 7yo has won the National since Bogskar in 1940

Statistical analysis of winners and placed horses in the Festival over the past 20 years

The Grand National is perhaps the world`s most famous horse race, run at Aintree Racecourse on the first Saturday in April. The 2009 running offered a total prize fund in excess of £900,000 with over £½ million going to the connections of the winner.

Its marathon distance of 4m 4f, along with the jumping of 30 of Aintree`s unique fences, presents a particularly tough test for both horse and rider. Finding the winner, or even narrowing down a field of 40 to a manageable number, is a tricky business.

The following considers the Grand Nationals run since 1990, in an attempt to highlight significant pointers to those runners likely to perform well.





Nationality
In recent years, France has fielded several well fancied runners in the National. However, no French-trained horse has been successful in the Aintree event since Lutteur III was victorious in 1909. The underlying reason is perhaps that French thoroughbreds tend to be trained more for speed than extreme tests of stamina. However, 2009 surprise winner, Mon Mome, was bred in France.

English-trained horses monopolised the event from 1990 to 1998 (the 1993 race was declared void after several false starts). However, 1999 saw a renaissance for Irish-trained horses, with back-to-back victories for Bobbyjo and Papillon. The Irish also won the race 4 times in 5 years, between 2003 and 2007.

Trainers / Jockeys
Nigel Twiston-Davies has been the most successful trainer since 1990, sending out Earth Summit to land the spoils in 1998 and Bindaree in 2002. Donald "Ginger" McCain`s victory with Amberleigh House in 2004 was his 4th win in the race, but the other 3 date back to the 1973, 1974 and 1977 successes of the brilliant Red Rum.

Amongst the jockeys, the now-retired Carl Llewellyn (Party Politics, 1992 and Earth Summit, 2002) and Rupert "Ruby" Walsh have 2 wins apiece. Walsh rode Papillon to victory for father Ted in 2000, won on Hedgehunter in 2005 and was runner-up on the same horse in 2006.

Weight Carried
Since 1990, only one horse (Hedgehunter) has carried over 11 stone (11-1) to victory. Winning weights have ranged from the minimum of 10-0 to 11-0, with an average of around 10-05. Some lowly-rated runners would carry less than the minimum 10-0 if allowed so to do. Carrying overweight puts them at a distinct disadvantage and they seldom perform well.

Age
From 1990-2009, the winners have been aged 8 to 12, with two 8-y-os, six 9-y-os, five 10-y-o-s, four 11-y-os and two 12-y-os being successful. No horse of any other age has managed to be placed.

Effective Racing Distance
The claim that horses effective at 2½ miles act at the National trip has been disproven. For many years, the Grand National winner has won a steeplechase over 3 miles or more. Any runner that has failed to do so is unlikely to stay the marathon 4½ mile National trip.

Notable Trial Races
Several races provide useful pointers to potential Grand National winners. Strangely, one of these is the Hennessey Gold Cup, run at Newbury, as early as November. In the period under study, 7 Grand National winners and 11 placed horses have run well in the Hennessey.

Other races with decent records of producing runners that go on to perform well at Aintree are Chepstow`s Welsh National, the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Fairyhouse`s Irish National.

Official Ratings
Winners` official handicap ratings, since 1990, range from 136 to 155, corresponding to winning weights of 10-0 to 11-1.

Racing Post Ratings
The Racing Post Rating of Grand National winners range from 150 (Silver Birch, 2007) to 170 (Rough Quest, 1996 and Hedgehunter, 2005) with the bulk towards the middle of this range.

Course Experience
Runners with experience of the unique Aintree fences often run well. Silver Birch won the Becher Chase in 2004, prior to National glory in 2007, while Amberleigh House was a respectable 14l 3rd to Monty`s Pass in the 2003 National prior to his success in 2004. However, Ginger McCain`s remarkable Red Rum was the last multiple winner of the race in 1977.

With this in mind, the best strategy may be to look for runners with decent form over the fences, while being wary of previous National winners that will have been reassessed by the handicapper and may have too much weight to repeat the feat.

Recent Form
Since 1990, all winners had between four and seven previous starts in the season of their National victory. All were placed in the first 3 on at least one of their three outings prior to the National, with 8 having won in their previous 3 starts.

Starting Price
The Grand National is not a lottery and should be treated as just another handicap steeplechase. Recent trends suggest that the winner often comes from the first ten in the Grand National betting market, well worth considering when taking advantage of Free National Tips

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Since the fences at Aintree have been rendered less difficult in recent years, the ability to get round increasingly favours the class horse.

The trends apparent in the race also offer strong pointers to those that will feature in the shake up. Because of this, it is possible to reduce the number of horses that can realistically be considered.